The first meeting of Russian and American diplomatic delegations to discuss the crisis in Ukraine ended as expected, without any progress and with the two powers wielding irreconcilable arguments and terms.
But the meeting, held this Monday (10th) in Geneva, served to put on the table the possibility of conversations on points where agreements could be reached, thus allowing to prevent the conflict from escalating to military deeds and also guaranteeing trophies to be displayed. for domestic audiences.
The meeting was attended by groups led by Russian Vice Chancellor Sergei Riabkov and Assistant Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, diplomats with decades of experience. They had already had informal dinner on Sunday, when the differences were all reiterated in an event classified as tense by both.
The current crisis dates back to the events of 2014, when the overthrow of the pro-Moscow government in Kiev prompted Vladimir Putin to annex Crimea and support the civil war of ethnic Russian separatists in the country’s east, the Donbass.
The open conflict has been put on hold under 2015 agreements that were never implemented, and its 14,000 dead receive slow-fire additions from time to time — this Monday, two more Ukrainian soldiers were killed.
Last November, Putin deployed more than 100,000 troops and weapons to regions close to the border, leading to accusations by the US and NATO (Western military alliance) that he intended to invade Ukraine.
In fact, everything indicates that the Russian decided to withdraw the military letter to try to force a negotiation, in which he was successful. The point is that he wants to solve the problem on his terms, having issued an ultimatum in which he wants a NATO commitment to withdraw troops from former communist member states and to expand, encompassing former Soviet republics such as Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova. .
None of this is acceptable, President Joe Biden had already said and repeated Sherman in Geneva. Riabkov, in turn, emulated Putin and said that there was no intention of invasion, despite the Russian president speaking of “red lines” that would have been crossed by the support that NATO gives Kiev with the supply of weapons.
“We need a breakthrough,” Riabkov said. “We had the impression that the American side took the Russian proposals very seriously and studied them deeply.” For Putin, the re-establishment of a cordon separating his territory from Western forces is a strategic imperative.
Sherman was less effusive. “Pushing security proposals is a no-start for the US. We’re not going to let anyone close NATO’s open-door policy,” she said.
All of this was predictable, but both spoke generally about having conversations about missile deployment policy in Europe and the nature of military exercises. The cues were placed side by side, as it appeared in the two press conferences.
Sherman said he told Riabkov that de-escalating the crisis would mean returning troops to their bases or making it clear what kind of exercises are being carried out. The Russian had said that the movements of soldiers were just routine, which is not in line with the Kremlin’s rhetoric so far.
Another crack of negotiation concerns intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles, which Russia thinks NATO wants to deploy in Ukraine or on its eastern borders, despite the alliance’s denials.
Contributing to this suspicion is the fact that, in 2019, the US tore up the agreement at the end of the Cold War that prevented such weapons from being used in Europe. Although obsolete, given that there are other alternatives side by side if they want to start a war, the treaty provided stability and mutual scrutiny mechanisms that ensured trust and warded off the risk of conflict.
Sherman said that “there is still a long way to go” to think about a new deal, but the conversation continues. That might be enough at this point.
Despite these two shortcuts to some sort of compromise, the insistence of those in attendance to maintain their positions keeps tensions high in Eastern Europe. Although it is unlikely, even for the example of 2014, there are those who fear that the situation is devolving into a war.
Conversations continue. On Wednesday, the Russian delegation will sit down with one from NATO in Brussels, within the framework of a council that had been created in 2002 and has not met since 2019. their last representatives side by side.
Just the fact that the meeting takes place can already be moderately celebrated. Finally, on Thursday, everyone will be seated in a broader forum, which brings together precisely the country most interested in the conversation, Ukraine. This is a meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Vienna.
Russia arrived at the meetings in a force meeting, having made a military intervention by its ex-Soviet alliance in Kazakhstan, where it helped the local autocrat restore order after last week’s unrest.
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