The Council of State of Portugal, an advisory body that brings together former presidents, heads of the Legislative and Judiciary and representatives of citizens, gave a favorable opinion to the dissolution of Parliament after meeting this Wednesday night (3).
The council’s approval is one of the mandatory steps for President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to dissolve the Legislature and call early elections. The dates of the two measures must be announced by the head of State on Thursday (4), during a speech to the Portuguese.
The dissolution of the Assembly of the Republic and the call for early legislative elections began to be organized after the Portuguese Parliament approved, last week, the budget proposal for 2022, opening a political crisis.
The rejection of the project presented by Prime Minister António Costa, of the Socialist Party, was already expected. Legends such as the Portuguese Communist Party and the Left Bloc, which made the government viable in recent years –forming the coalition nicknamed “gimmick”, due to its apparent fragility– had already announced that they would vote against the text.
The government’s defeat did not mean an automatic trigger for calling new elections, but Rebelo de Sousa had already announced that he would adopt this solution.
In order for the president to start the process, it was necessary to follow certain procedures, such as a meeting with the prime minister and the president of the Assembly, in addition to meetings with party representatives. The assent of the Council of State, given on Wednesday, was the last necessary step.
According to information from the Portuguese newspaper Público, elections are most likely to be called for January 30, 2022, under the argument that Parliament needs time to conclude ongoing discussions. The dissolution decree must be signed at the end of November — from then on, there are 55 to 60 days for the election to take place.
The choice of date is a matter of dispute. Also on Wednesday, 117 leaders, mostly from the centre-right, released an open letter to Rebelo de Sousa asking that the nomination take into account the internal processes of the parties.
“Since there are several parties with internal, regular, mandatory and previously initiated electoral processes, the democratic response cannot be to demand that they dispense with internal democracy”, says an excerpt of the text, entitled “Time for democracy: for equality, quality and stability democratic institutions”.
The leaders also argue that “the idea that there would be a conflict between the interest in an electoral process that takes place quickly, but ensuring democratic normality, and the interest of the economy, companies and workers, is false”.
The Socialist Party has been losing popular support since the 2019 national elections, when it won 36% of the vote. Now, opinion polls show the legend with a support of about 27% of the Portuguese. It is speculated that Costa will be appointed as the candidate of the Socialists for the position of prime minister in the new election.
But the expectation, therefore, according to analysts, is that the left will lose seats in the new parliament. On the other hand, the far-right party Chega, could expand its caucus, which today has only one deputy.
A new election, however, should not alone resolve the budget impasse. This morning, Portuguese Economy Minister Pedro Siza Vieira acknowledged that any government will have to administer a “fragmented” parliament, but defended a new election as the best option to end the imbroglio.
The main fear of investors is that the political crisis will affect the billionaire transfers from the European Union to the country, seen as an engine for a post-pandemic economic recovery.
“A long time ago, we’ve seen countries without a Budget or even an active government, but ultimately a Budget will be approved,” said Vieira, in an attempt to provide economic stability amid market speculation.
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