The Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan he aims to extend his rule for a third decade in Sunday’s electionas the predictions are in his favor in the second round of voting, since he finished in the first round ahead of his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Already bolstered by the parliamentary majority won by his Islamist party, the AKP, and its allies in May 14 electionThe Erdogan it was further boosted on Monday by announcing the support of a nationalist politician who had come third in the first round.

In the elections it will be decided not only who will lead Turkey, but also how the country will be governed, where its economy will head and what form its foreign policy will take. Kilicdaroglu, who received the backing of another far-right leader, is backed by a six-party coalition that includes his Republican People’s Party (CHP).

Turkey’s longest-serving leader, Erdogan is at home a champion of religious piety and low bank interest rates as he seeks to assert Turkish influence in the region and ease his NATO-member country’s relations with the West.

The second round of elections takes place three months after earthquakes in southeastern Turkey which claimed the lives of more than 50,000 people.

What is at stake for Turkey…

Erdogan is the most powerful leader Turkey has had since the founding of the modern Turkish republic a century ago by Mustafa Kemal and, together with his party, the AKP, has moved the Turkish state away from its secular character given by its founder.

Erdogan has also concentrated power in an executive presidency of the Republic, which is based in a 1,000-room mansion on the outskirts of Ankara and sets policy on the economy, security, domestic and international affairs. .

Erdogan’s critics say his government has silenced dissent, eroded rights and taken control of the justice system, a charge denied by officials, who say Erdogan’s government has protected citizens against threats to security, including an attempted coup in 2016.

Economists say Erdogan’s calls for low interest rates pushed inflation last year to 85 percent, its highest level in 24 years, and weakened the lira to a tenth of its value against the dollar over the past decade.

– … and the rest of the world?

Under Erdogan, Turkey has made a show of military might in the Middle East and beyond, launching four raids on Syrian soil, waging an offensive against Kurdish fighters inside Iraq and sending military support to Libya and Azerbaijan.

Turkey has also had a series of diplomatic clashes with regional powers Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, as well as a standoff with Greece and Cyprus over the demarcation of maritime zones in the eastern Mediterranean, until before since two years she has sought to approach some of her rivals.

Erdogan’s purchase of Russian air defense systems has prompted sanctions by the US arms industry against Ankara, while his closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin has led critics to question Turkey’s commitment to the western NATO alliance. Ankara’s objections to Sweden and Finland joining NATO also caused tensions.

But Turkey also brokered a deal on Ukrainian grain exports, underscoring the potential role Erdogan is claiming in efforts to end the war in Ukraine. It is not clear that a successor will have the same profile that he created on the world stage, something Erdogan emphasized during his election campaign.

– What does the opposition promise?

Two main opposition parties, the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the center-right nationalist Yi Party, have allied with four smaller parties on a program that would overturn many of Erdogan’s signature policies.

They pledged to restore the independence of the central bank and reverse Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies. They will also dissolve his executive presidency by restoring the previous parliamentary system and send Syrian refugees back to their homeland.

They also aim to improve relations with Western allies, including the United States, and bring Turkey back into the F-35 fighter jet program, from which it was excluded after buying Russian air defense missile systems.

Analysts believe that the policies promised by the opposition can stimulate foreign investment.

Erdogan has backed efforts to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which have failed, while hosting at least 3.6 million Syrian refugees, who are no longer welcome at a time of economic hardship for Turkey.

Seeking to get a runoff boost from nationalist voters, Kilicdaroglu has sharpened his anti-immigrant tone in the past two weeks and promised to repatriate migrants.

– How ambiguous is the race?

Kilicdaroglu received 44.9% of the vote in the first round, compared to Erdogan’s 49.5%. The outgoing president’s rating reflects steady support, despite a deep cost-of-living crisis and despite polls showing Kilicdaroglu ahead. Pollsters later pointed to an unexpected surge in the nationalist vote at the ballot box to explain the result.

Erdogan has argued that a vote in his favor would ensure stability, since his alliance already has a majority in parliament.

Turkey’s four-decade-old conflict with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) was a factor during the election campaign, as was the role of the main pro-Kurdish political party.

While not part of the opposition alliance, the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) is staunchly opposed to Erdogan, after a crackdown on its members in recent years, and has backed Kilicdaroglu.

Erdogan’s attacks on Kilicdaroglu have included accusations, without evidence, that he is backed by the PKK, which has waged an armed insurgency since the 1980s that has killed more than 40,000 people. Kilicdaroglu has denied the charges.