Ending the Black Sea grain deal will hit the Horn of Africa hard, aid officials said today, warning that another food surge would add to the plight of tens of millions of people facing starvation.

Moscow is threatening to pull out of the deal known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative — brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last July — if barriers to its own grain and fertilizer shipments are not lifted. . A Ukrainian diplomat has said it is 99.9% certain that Russia will leave when the deal is due for renewal on July 18.

Famine in parts of the Horn of Africa was averted this year as the rainy season exceeded forecasts. But aid officials say about 60 million people continue to face food insecurity in seven east African countries and worry about the impact of another blow.

“Not renewing the Black Sea initiative will absolutely hit east Africa very, very hard,” Dominique Ferretti, a senior official at the World Food Program (WFP), told reporters in Geneva. “There are a number of countries that depend on Ukraine’s wheat and without it we would see significantly higher food prices.”

WFP is trying to transport and store as much food as possible and will be forced to change suppliers if the deal is cancelled, Ferretti added.

Brenda Lazarus of the Food and Agriculture Organization said the diet in Somalia, Sudan, Djibouti and Eritrea was centered on wheat and any change would be “very slow”.

United Nations figures show that about 700,000 tonnes have been shipped to Kenya and Ethiopia since the Black Sea agreement came into force. While this accounts for only about 2% of the total volume, the region has also been hit by a spike in wheat prices since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, although prices have since eased.

A World Health Organization official said 10.4 million children were facing acute malnutrition and cited the highest levels of hospital admissions in the past three years in Somalia, South Sudan and parts of Kenya.