Sergei Shoigu reappeared on television. During the armed uprising of the Wagner group against him personally, as well as the next day, the Russian Minister of Defense did not appear in public. It was only on Monday that Russian media showed footage of him – allegedly from the war zone in Ukraine in the morning and a security meeting with President Putin in the evening. Regarding the uprising, Shoigu has yet to make a statement.

“The accusations are also against Putin”

“He’s following his gut,” says Professor Brian Taylor of Syracuse University in New York. “When he was the Disaster Management Minister, he used to show up in affected areas. Now, when it comes to a disaster he is responsible for, he avoids public appearances. But he is working behind the scenes with Putin and others to secure his position,” Taylor observes to DW.

The conflict between Yevgeny Prigozhin, head and founder of the Wagner group, and the leadership of the Ministry of Defense had been escalating for months, with Prigozhin initially blaming Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov for the insufficient supply of ammunition. The press service of the Ministry of Defense rejected these claims and Shoigu was not involved in any dispute.

But using increasingly harsh language, Prigozhin also criticized the way the Kremlin justifies the war. Taylor points out that the charges against Shoigu and Gerasimov are “in some ways justified, as the war is going very badly for Russia.” Many of Prigozhin’s accusations would also apply to “Vladimir Putin in particular,” who invaded Ukraine without justification.

Why can’t Putin fire Shoigu?

The Russian president is asked to decide whether to keep Shoigu in office. Taylor points out that much of what the defense minister presented to his boss about the Russian military “turned out to be untrue, so it would make sense for Shoigu to go.” However, these untruths were already evident a year ago, immediately after the invasion of Ukraine. The expert reminds that Shoigu is a civilian minister of defense and military personnel are responsible for the failures. In any case, however, the president is the one who must be held accountable for the miscalculations.

Putin, however, cannot immediately oust Shoigu, as that would be interpreted as a sign of weakness. In this way he would back down to Prigozhin at the same time as accusing him of treason, as Taylor explains. After all, Putin is known not to fire people he considers his own. Especially in special cases, such as Shoigu’s.

More than a minister…

The 68-year-old Shoigu comes from the wealthy background of the Soviet nomenklatura, and his father was the secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. After training as a civil engineer, Shoigu’s career developed rapidly. From a young age he was in charge of large construction projects. In the last years of the Soviet Union he moved to Moscow, where he founded and headed the state rescue service. When it became the Ministry of Disaster Management, Shoigu had already been in charge for almost 20 years. In the late 1990s he was considered the most popular Russian minister and led the then-new Kremlin party Unity – the forerunner of today’s United Russia party – in the State Duma elections.

In 2012, immediately after Putin’s return to the presidency, Shoigu initially became governor of the Moscow region. A few months later, he was appointed defense minister and began his reform work, reinstating, among other things, combat readiness inspections in the Russian military. Shoigu was also head of his party for the 2021 elections.

…but difficult to succeed Putin

In late 2021, shortly before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the president and defense minister retreated to the taiga of southern Siberia, where Putin often spends his vacations. Putin and Shoigu developed a special relationship, with the latter already being discussed as a possible successor to Putin.

For Brian Taylor, however, such an eventuality is unlikely. “The logic of Putin’s centralized rule does not foresee an alternative solution, a successor” and this for two reasons: firstly, Shoigu is almost the same age as Putin and a new president should come from a younger generation. Second, “Shoigu’s potential to become president is limited by the fact that he is not ethnically Russian.”

What does all this mean for the war in Ukraine?

Putin faces a tough decision, says Taylor. Shoigu’s ouster would be a sign of weakness, but keeping him in office could increase disaffection in the military. However, Taylor would not be surprised if Putin replaces the defense minister in a few weeks – putting Shoigu in another honorary position.

“In any case, Ukraine can benefit from the consequences of the uprising,” the expert believes. The Russian military’s response to the Ukrainian counterattack could be less organized and the morale of the soldiers weakened. But fighting continued even during the uprising, so the collapse of Russian troops is probably not expected.