The moderate politician who took over the US presidency on the promise of uniting a polarized country ends his first year in office without winning over Republicans and losing support from Democrats.
“Without unity there is no peace, there is only bitterness and rage,” Joe Biden said in his inaugural address. “This is our historic moment of crisis and challenge, and unity is the path we must take.”
Twelve months later, it became clear that the era of bipartisan cooperation he envisioned, after a turbulent Trump administration, had not come to fruition. And the frustrated expectation is reflected in the low popularity of the Democrat, of just 40% in January – he took over with 57%, according to Gallup. The only US president with a lower approval rating at the same time in office was Donald Trump, with 36%.
Biden made advances. It managed to pass the US$ 1.9 trillion stimulus package, conducted a vaccination campaign against Covid that immunized 63% of the population – and it was only not better due to the misinformation propagated by the far right – and reduced unemployment to 3.9% who inherited at 6.3%.
Of all the victories, however, only one was stitched together with support from both parties — the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package signed in November. The defeats are due as much to Republicans’ unwillingness to cooperate as to Biden’s inability to persuade centrist Democrats like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to accommodate the party’s left-wing ambitions.
The Build Back Better, a $1.75 trillion package of social and environmental spending, was buried after Manchin said in December that he could not vote on legislation in the way it was proposed.
Sinema, for its part, declared that it would oppose changes to the Senate’s voting rules, which are essential in order to pass legislation on the right to vote with a simple majority. The more progressive wing of the party is also disappointed in Biden — civil rights leaders boycotted the president’s speech in support of the Atlanta voting rights bill last week, arguing that it took too long for the Democrat to really focus on approval. of the legislation.
To top it off, two factors have been souring voters. Covid, which insists on not leaving, has returned to fill hospitals due to the omicron. The lack of tests and the government’s miscommunication are targets of criticism. Furthermore, the prospect of new lockdowns and online classes despairs Americans.
Inflation, which ended 2021 at 7%, the highest rate in 40 years, is another cause of the bad mood of voters, who feel the scarcity every time they go shopping. Supermarkets, by the way, continue with empty shelves, a reflection of the problems in supply chains resulting from the pandemic.
Thus, the republicans swim with a stroke. The poll that measures voters’ party identity, conducted by Gallup, shows that Democrats lost 7 percentage points in the first year of Biden’s administration. As of January 2021, 49% identified as Democrats and 40% as Republicans. In December, 42% said they supported Democrats, and 47%, Republicans.
Much of the mishap is not Biden’s fault. The math for passing laws has always been difficult. Democrats have a tiny majority in the House and half the votes in the Senate — in addition to the tie-breaking power of Vice, Kamala Harris — meaning they cannot afford to defect.
Biden took office with the support of just 11% of Republican voters, a mark well below, for example, Obama’s (41%) in 2009. Added to the index are the battles against the demand for masks and vaccines, in addition to the culture war. fueled by Republicans around teaching about structural racism in schools, which only exacerbates the polarization that Biden set out to combat.
Just over a year after the Capitol storming, just 21% of Republicans say they believe Biden won the 2020 election, according to a UMass-YouGov poll, despite more than 50 court rulings to the contrary. And that’s not all: 48% of voters say Biden is “mentally incapable” of taking the job, according to a November poll by Politico. All this portends a difficult year.
Trump supporters and allies are running for seats in state governors, positions that would give them the power to oversee elections and reverse results contrary to their preferences. Laws passed by Republican-controlled state legislatures will already make it more difficult for voters to go to the polls, raising the bar for requirements, making low-income and minority voters, who have greater difficulty voting and traditionally tend to vote Democrat, the most hit.
With Biden’s low popularity, the chances of Democrats taking a beating in the November midterm elections increase. If, with the control of the House and Senate, it was already difficult to approve projects of interest to the government, imagine if the Republicans started to give the cards in both Houses.
The external front is not auspicious either. Russia continues with troops on the Ukrainian border and signaling an invasion, negotiations for Iran’s return to the nuclear deal are stalled and China continues to show force towards Taiwan. The massive influx of undocumented migrants into Mexico shows no signs of slowing down. From October 2020 to September 2021, it was 1.73 million, nearly four times the figure of 458,000 in fiscal 2020 under Trump.
For now, the Democrats’ strategy has been “wishful thinking.” They maintain the hope that the onomicron and inflation will recede and will try to get less ambitious versions of the BBB in the Senate, with universal access to preschool and reduction in the price of medicines, initiatives that could be an electoral bonus. They must also reintroduce voting access legislation.
But time is short to improve the mood of the electorate, which has worsened since the catastrophic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in August. A CBS News poll released last week shows that 75% of voters say they believe the country is doing a little or very badly, and most disapprove of Biden’s performance on the economy, immigration, security and race relations.
Even in the response to the pandemic, which was one of the Democrat’s strengths, the mood has changed – 51% say the government is doing poorly, and 49%, well. Also according to the survey, 50% of voters are frustrated with the current management, and only 25% are satisfied.
Obama had said that after years of turmoil with Trump, voters could finally ignore the daily dramas and scandals because Biden would bring calm. “It won’t be that exhausting. You can mind your own business.” Apparently, many voters weren’t looking forward to a return to normalcy that much after four years of Trump’s roller coaster.
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