Britain’s Conservatives lost their majority and seats in two of the three constituencies where crucial by-elections were held yesterday a year before the UK general election. But they retained, with a marginal majority, in the House of Commons the seat vacated by the resignation of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson due to the Partygate scandal.

Yesterday’s by-election is an indicator of the election season that is about to begin, both for the Conservative majority, which is down in the polls after 13 years in power, and for the main opposition, the Labor Party, which dreams of Downing Street in 2024.

Rishi Sunak was forecast to become the first British prime minister to lose three seats in one day, but he escaped humiliation with a surprise Tory election victory, albeit a narrow one, in Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Riislip constituency in west London, where Labor had been tipped to win.

In contrast, the Tories suffered heavy electoral defeats in the other two constituencies.

In the Somerton and Frome constituency Lib-Dem candidate Sarah Dyke wrested the seat from the Conservatives by more than 11,000 votes.

“History”

In the constituency of Shelby and Ainsty (northern England), the Labor Party managed to dethrone the Conservatives who had a majority there of more than 20,000 votes. Here, it is the biggest Labor upset of the by-laws since World War II.

The winner, Keir Mather (16,456 votes to 12,295 for the Tories), 25, said during his speech after the results were announced that “it’s been a while since the Conservatives have let us down, both here and in Westminster”.

Labor leader Keir Starmer hailed “a historic election result which shows that people see Labor as a party that has changed”.

In the district of Uxbridge and South Risslip, the Tories managed to keep their seat marginally (13,965 against 13,470 votes). Labour, which has been leading in the polls, appears to have paid for the Labour-controlled city council’s decision to tax polluting cars.

Boris Johnson spoke of “amazing news”, “which shows that the Conservatives can win in London and its wider region.

Voting test

The vote is “a test of how the country feels (…) after many years of crisis in British politics”, according to a voter in Uxbridge.

And with two heavy defeats, this test is not positive for the Tory government.

Rishi Sunak himself admitted it on the eve of the election, speaking to MPs of his party: this election will be a “tough battle”, he said, while inflation, although slowing, at 7.9%, has undermined the purchasing power of British households and is causing a series of strike action.

Confidence in the face of the 43-year-old prime minister has reached an all-time low and 65% of Britons have a negative view of Rishi Sunak, according to a YouGov poll.

At the same time, the British government’s most popular minister, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, announced last week that he would not stand in the election, joining the chorus of fifty majority MPs who have made a similar statement.

Ben Wallace intends to leave the government in the next reshuffle expected in September. Unless Rishi Sunak decides to reshuffle his government within the week after the by-election in an attempt to regain the initiative.

Against the Tories, Labor maintains a large lead of 10 percentage points in the polls, led by Keir Starmer who has brought Labor back to the center after Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership and his far-left leanings, and dreams of Downing Street after 3 years of Tory rule. They have already won six by-elections since March 2022 and wrested two seats from the Conservatives.

Keir Starmer has become a devotee of fiscal discipline, but this week angered part of the Labor base with his opposition to increasing welfare benefits for large families. He is not considered charismatic and is judged negatively by the majority of Britons.

Today, Angela Rayner, Labour’s second-in-command, said nothing was being taken for granted.

“Selby was an important historic result and we recognize it’s an amazing win, but we’re not taking anything for granted,” he told BBC radio.

He added that the election result in the third constituency where Labor failed to wrest the seat from the Conservative Party showed there was still work to be done.