The exact circumstances of the presumed death of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin remain undetermined so far. However, one strong belief prevails among experts: It sounds like Vladimir Putin’s revenge.

Accounts on Russian social media, close to the opposition or some linked to this paramilitary organization, converge on the initial analyzes of Western think tanks: the life of the out-of-control mercenary was hanging by a thread after his mutiny in late June.

“Whatever the reasons for the plane crash, everyone will see it as an act of revenge and retaliation, and the Kremlin will not particularly oppose that perception,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, the founder of the R. Politik consulting firm.

Almost 24 hours passed before the Russian president addressed Prigozhin’s death.

Since the plane crash yesterday evening and after the Russian Federal Aviation Administration announced in the evening that Prigozhin was aboard the Embraer Legacy 600 private jet that crashed in the Tver region, north of Moscow, killing all 10 people on board, until today at At 7 p.m., the Kremlin was keeping a fishy silence.

Putin offered his condolences today to the Wagner chief’s family, speaking of a successful businessman he had known since the 1990s.

The causes of the crash

Despite countless scenarios, speculations and questions, the Russian authorities have not favored any version. An investigation has been launched into possible breach of security rules. Commission of Inquiry officials were already on the scene less than 24 hours after the plane crashed.

“We need to wait for the outcome of official investigations” into the plane crash, Putin said today.

Wagner has not had an official social media account since June 26 and last posted an audio clip with Prigozhin’s voice. However, accounts close to the mercenary company speak of the scenario of S-300 surface-to-air missiles being fired at the private jet, an allegation that has so far not been proven.

This script was promoted after the crash was announced. Wagner-affiliated Gray Zone said in a Telegram post last night that “distinctive white trails” of anti-aircraft fire were seen in the sky, referring to amateur video purportedly showing the moment the plane went down. The authenticity of this particular video has not been verified by AFP.

Other videos also capture the spiraling descent of the aircraft.

Even the president of the Russia Today media group, Margarita Simonyan, appeared to favor the assassination scenario, downplaying the scenario that wanted the most famous mercenary on the planet to orchestrate his disappearance. “Among the scenarios being discussed, that of a staged disappearance. Personally, I’m leaning towards the more obvious (scenario),” he wrote.

The other victims

Ten people were on board the plane, according to the official passenger list. All were “killed”, announced the Ministry of Emergency Situations.

The Dossier, a website owned by Russian dissident and exiled businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky published brief biographies of the victims.

Among them, Dmitry Utkin, Prigozhin’s right-hand man within Wagner, known for his neo-Nazi sympathies.

“He was responsible for command and training on the battlefield,” according to the Dossier. “He signed the orders with the phrase ‘to victory’ (s.b. from the German Nazi slogan ‘Sieg Heil’ (Long Live Victory).

Another passenger, Valery Chekalov, was one of the directors of Concord, the company founded by Prigozhin, and had worked with him since the 2000s.

He oversaw all of Prigozhin’s political plans abroad, “whether geological exploration, oil production or agriculture,” as well as Wagner’s logistical support, the Dossier said.

The pervasive suspicion

Putin’s anger at the time of the Wagner mutiny, the extermination of his opponents, the tough stance adopted by the Kremlin after the start of the invasion of Ukraine: observers invoked various arguments to pin the blame on the Kremlin strongman.

“If Russia were a normal state, the mutiny would have led to a trial (…). Whatever one thinks about Prigozhin, it is absurd to kill someone without trial, especially when he is not in hiding,” said Khodorkovsky via a post on the X platform (formerly Twitter).

“But in the world in which Putin operates, the world of gangsters, this is the only way… After all, who knows what he (S.P. Prigozhin) would say in court…”

Samuel Ramani, an expert of the British institute RUSI, recalls for his part that “Alexander Litvinenko and Anna Politkovskaya had criticized the Chechen war in the early 2000s and were murdered in 2006.”

And I note: “Putin is known for his delayed revenge. Prigozhin’s death came much earlier than usual.”

Other questions remain unanswered, notably those raised by former US ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul, on Platform X. “Why did Putin choose to kill Prigozhin in such a spectacular way? (…) Why did he allow Prigozhin to attend the summit in St. Petersburg” between Russia and Africa last July, he wondered. And finally, why are Wagner’s mercenaries “now allowed to talk about revenge on social media?”