At ballot boxes today the voters come to German states of Bavaria and Hesse, where much more is at stake than who the new state governments will be. The results are expected to cause new shocks in the federal government and another headache for Chancellor Olaf Soltz.

Hesse, home to the financial center of Frankfurt, and Bavaria, Germany’s largest state and home to major companies such as Siemens and BMW, are among Germany’s richest states. Together they also account for roughly a quarter of Germany’s total population. About 9.4 million voters are expected to go to the polls today in Bavaria and about 4.3 million in Hesse.

Recent polls show the CDU/CSU bloc leading in both states, with observers citing low popularity ratings for the chancellor’s coalition government Olaf Solz. Berlin will be watching the election closely to see if the CDU/CSU can benefit, or if the gains will go to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has been steadily gaining ground in national elections.

Concerns about national issues such as immigration, the costs of the green transition and the stagnation of Europe’s largest economy have overshadowed the election campaigns in both states.

The first estimates of the election result are expected around 18.00 local time (19.00 Greek time).