An unusual feature of Bolsonarism is the constant concern to associate its domestic project with a grand international narrative. The end of the alliance with Trump and Netanyahu, the cornerstone of diplomacy between 2019 and 2021, forced the president’s allies to look for alternatives.
After exchanging sympathies with Erdogan and meeting with the petromonarchs of the Middle East at the end of last year, Jair Bolsonaro is preparing to complete the eastern turn of his foreign policy with a trip to Russia. For Vladimir Putin, the timing couldn’t be more opportune.
In one of the biggest mobilizations by a military power since the 2003 Gulf War, the Russian leader stationed some 130,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and began a pressure game with Western powers. The month of February will be decisive, and Putin wants to show that Russia is not isolated.
In the wake of the memorable meeting with Xi Jinping, he will present Bolsonaro’s visit as a manifestation of support from the BRICS countries. To the despair of the Itamaraty, it will be almost impossible to prevent the Kremlin from using the agenda.
This umpteenth diplomatic embarrassment will have limited impact for Brazil. Western powers seem indifferent to Bolsonaro’s provocations, which they consider a hopeless case.
The rapprochement with non-Western powers will always bump into antipathy to China, made irreversible by the primitive behavior of Bolsonaristas.
In this context, it is difficult for any leader, starting with the ultra-realist Putin, to spend his political capital committing himself to the Brazilian government a few months before the elections. The new phase of Bolsonar diplomacy promises to be the same as the previous one: amateur, superficial and easily manipulated.
Bolsonaro, small and isolated, is left with vice and swindle. Since the 2018 elections, he has been using international relations to virilize his image.
From this point of view, the Russian agenda fully fulfills its function. Over the past 20 years, Putin has all but reinvented the use of masculinity as an instrument of power, piloting tanks and challenging bears to rescue the self-esteem of Russian men traumatized by the collapse of the Soviet Union. In approaching the king of toxic masculinity, Bolsonaro reaffirms his association with Donald Trump, Mohammed bin Salman, Matteo Salvini and other figures admired by the far-right voter.
But this cosmetic operation can backfire. After all, the contrast between the two armies is much stronger than the parallel between Bolsonaro and Putin. On one side will be the head of a force that was notable for raising figures like Eduardo Pazuello to decision-making positions, parading with steaming tanks and spending the resources to face the health crisis on filet mignon and steak.
On the other, the leader of a country that can think of all the military boards in the world with a GDP equivalent to that of Brazil. The trip to Moscow will make clear, once again, the insignificance of the unbroken.
Source: Folha
