Polls opened today at 09:00 (local and Greek time) in Egypt for the three-day presidential election, which is expected to hold no surprises as outgoing President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi looks certain to secure a third presidential term.

The presidency is contested by four candidates, Sisi and three others rather unknown to the general public. Voting will be held over three days from 9 am. to 9 p.m., it will end on Tuesday at 9 p.m. and the final results will be announced on December 18.

In the most populous Arab country in the world, with a population of nearly 106 million, the organization of the election was pharaonic: about 9,400 polling stations, the mobilization of 15,000 Justice Ministry employees and a three-day voting period for the approximately 67 million Egyptians registered to vote. according to the electoral authority, in a total population of 104 million inhabitants.

The scenario of a runoff is rather unlikely in light of the 2014 and 2018 elections, in which Sisi won 96% of the vote.

For this new vote, some observers had believed for a while that the competition would be tougher. But the two opposition figures who wanted to turn the tables, with no real hope of winning the election, but expressing dissenting views at least as long as the election campaign would last, are in jail or awaiting trial.

Beyond the issue of human rights—Egypt ranks 135th out of 140 countries in the World Justice Project’s rule of law performance—Egyptians’ number one priority is the economic situation.

Inflation is running at 40%, a 50% devaluation of the Egyptian currency has caused prices to skyrocket, and the private sector continues to shrink. Public subsidies, for their part, are disappearing one after another under pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“Releasing the prisoners of conscience”

The IMF is still waiting to issue its quarterly assessments after a new loan to Egypt, the world’s second-most exposed country to default, according to Bloomberg.

Realizing the economic expectations of the voters, the candidate Hazem Omar assured that his “first decision” if elected, will be “to control inflation through the abolition of VAT on basic food”.

Omar made the statement during the only televised debate between the candidates, in which Sisi sent a member of his campaign to represent him.

Another candidate, Farid Zahran, head of a small left-wing party, promised for his part “the release of all prisoners of conscience”, who number in the thousands since Sisi came to power, as well as the “repeal of freedom-killing laws”.

For the Arab Reform Initiative, “Mr. Sisi’s guaranteed victory has nothing to do with his popularity or his economic performance.”

The outgoing president “will win because he controls the institutions of the state and the much-feared security apparatus, in addition to having eliminated any serious challenger,” said the Paris-based think tank.

Ezzat Ibrahim, a member of the Human Rights Council – an independent body whose members are appointed by the parliament – denies, however, that the die has already been cast.

Portraits of Sisi are ubiquitous

“To claim that the elections have been won in advance means that you want to prevent Egyptians from exercising their rights and promote a bad image of the state,” he had argued speaking to AFP.

However, on the streets, posters and banners proclaiming the support of parties, district committees or local personalities to the outgoing president are everywhere. The campaign posters of the other candidates are rare for their part.

Beyond domestic challenges, the Arab Reform Initiative highlights the impact of the war between Palestinian Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip, which borders the Egyptian Sinai.

This conflict, he argues, “threatens the already faltering Egyptian economy with a new blow, while reviving contestation in the streets.”

Thus, on October 20, hundreds of Egyptians demonstrated in solidarity with the people of Gaza and deviated from their course to head to the iconic Tahrir Square – where in 2011 the protests had brought about the fall of the then president Hosni Mubarak – before they were quickly dispersed by the forces security.

Since then no permission has been given for any pro-Palestinian march, in a country where it is illegal to demonstrate.

According to the Initiative for Arab Reform, “Mr Sisi is likely hoping that the war in Gaza will give him leverage to put pressure on the Gulf and the West,” as an inevitable interlocutor in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while also seeking support ” international financiers to alleviate the financial crisis”.