The world’s largest power (United States), most populous country (India), largest trading bloc (European Union), largest Muslim country (Indonesia), largest Spanish-speaking country (Mexico), and the region embodying the greatest risk of confrontation between the two superpowers of this century (Taiwan) will hold elections in 2024.

Some 70 countries – with a combined population of more than 3.7 billion, or nearly half the world’s population – plan to hold presidential or parliamentary elections next year. The election verdict, as El Pais writes, will have profound consequences for people’s lives and for a world going through turbulent times, with violent wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as the West falls into decline (with no clear replacement). .

Geopolitically, this election cycle could have a significant impact. Although the Colorado Supreme Court has ruled that Donald Trump is ineligible to run for president, all eyes are now on the US federal Supreme Court. Also, a third straight victory in Taiwan by candidates Beijing considers hostile, or a strong rise of the far right in the European Union could have far-reaching consequences.

Apart from these cases, there are many more… These range from parliamentary elections in Pakistan – an unstable nuclear power – to those in Iran – from possible presidential elections in Venezuela to those in Ukraine. Zelensky’s term ends in March 2024, but given the Russian invasion, it is unclear when the elections will actually be held.

These elections will be an important testing ground for democracy around the world. Studies agree on pointing to a global deterioration in the quality of democracy, with many extreme setbacks – such as coups in several African countries – or moderate setbacks, with issues causing many societies to slide from healthy democratic environments to more “fragile” ones.

Leaving aside mock elections like the one in Russia, it will be important to see what happens in the United States, where Trump has tried to reverse his 2020 defeat, or in India, where opponents of the Modi government and international observers are reporting alarming setbacks.

The American presidential election next November has enormous disruptive potential. On the Democratic side, Joe Biden seems determined to run for re-election. According to all investigations, the its appeal is weak, perhaps because of the signs of its advanced age or because of the damage caused by the highest inflation of the past four decades.

Taiwan is in the eye of Beijing. Despite not having the largest population or economy, the island is extremely important geopolitically. It has a complex political system, full of nuances in its relationship with Beijing. But there is a fairly clear dilemma: a victory for the Kuomintang (KMT) – in favor of seeking better relations with Beijing – is likely to de-escalate the situation. It remains to be seen what the medium- and long-term consequences of a policy that would bet less on strengthening defense capabilities would be. On the other hand, a third consecutive victory for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – a carrier of a more assertive Taiwanese identity, in favor of deepening relations with the United States and strengthening defense – would be seen in Beijing as proof that its citizens island are moving away from the KMT’s negotiating stance. No one knows how this result will feed into the Chinese Communist Party’s strategic calculations.

President Xi Jinping has clearly signaled that he considers reunification an essential part of his political plan. It has ordered its armed forces to reach a new level of operational capability by 2027. Still, there is no doubt that Beijing would prefer to avoid a conflict with potentially damaging results. Even if the government achieves reunification militarily with relative ease, the severe economic consequences will likely complicate its path to prosperity. This is the ‘key’, as unfettered growth is a fundamental element of the Chinese Communist Party’s tacit agreement to grant freedoms in exchange for economic progress. But would Xi really abandon the goal of reunification?

In June 2024, the European Parliament will hold elections in all 27 member states. The results will shape the new body, with possible new legislative majorities influencing the EU leadership. One wonders how high the far-right wave will reach.

An average of polls compiled by Politico shows a rise in the two far-right blocs and a decline in support among traditional European conservatives, social democrats, liberals and the Greens. Even so, the latter groups will likely retain a comfortable majority. The crux of the matter is to see if a possible coalition between populist and far-right groups could form an alternative majority. At the beginning of December, in the seat forecast published by Politico, the distance between extremes and moderates was only 20 seats (out of 720).

An absolute majority of the right in the European Parliament is not possible. But even if not achieved, an increase in the influence of hard-right blocs would have significant consequences. Convergences have already taken place in the current legislative period. On some issues—for example, the fight against climate change—the right has influence. With more extremist MPs, there is the possibility of a scenario in which the centre-right takes a tougher line against environmental regulations. And, with a larger far-right bloc, it is unclear whether the EU will be able to move forward with admitting the twelve candidate countries or whether it will continue to support Ukraine.

Speaking of Ukraine, both the invaded country and the invader – Russia – are required to hold elections in March. In the case of Ukraine – due to the war and martial law – it is possible that the vote will be postponed.

However, the debate over whether they should be held has been intense in recent months. There are relevant voices in the United States – a country that is fundamental to the government in Kiev – which are in favor of holding them. In the Russian case, meanwhile, nothing but a Putin victory can be expected. While Zelensky and Putin remain leaders, political conditions remain delicate. In such a complex conflict, any political turmoil is relevant.

In the Global South, in Pakistan and India, nationalism and tensions are rife. India – the world’s most populous country, the planet’s fifth largest economy and a partner of the United States – will see its prime minister try to win a third term. His leadership is extremely controversial.

Recent years, India has achieved significant economic growth and improved its geopolitical influence... but his push towards Hindu nationalism raises huge fears for the safety of minorities, especially the 200 million or so Muslims and the 200 million Dalits (those who belong to the lowest rung of the Hindu system). Modi’s style of governance is seen as particularly corrosive to democracy, both by his domestic opponents and by international human rights groups. A third term for Modi – who has ruled since 2014 – could be another step away from India’s secular and inclusive logic of its Constitution and sharpen its geopolitical activism on a global scale.

Parliamentary elections are also scheduled in India’s troubled neighbor Pakistan – a nuclear power plagued by a severe economic crisis and high political tensions; including arrests of political leaders. After Parliament was dissolved in August, the election should have been held within 90 days, but was postponed twice. They are now scheduled for February. The country – with about 240 million inhabitants – has enormous strategic depth, not only because of its nuclear arsenal, but also because of its close relationship with China. The Beijing-Islamabad axis is New Delhi’s biggest concern.

Many other nations will go to the polls next year. And all will be closely watched by Beijing, by Xi Jinping, the leader of a country that doesn’t bother to hold elections, real or fake. The rise of the Asian giant and its relationship with Washington will define our century. For this reason, the elections in the United States and Taiwan are perhaps the most important in the long cycle of elections scheduled for 2024.