Donald Trump he’s got one foot in the White House… or the other foot in jail. The former US president has a busy schedule, with many campaign and court appearances that will attract a lot of interest. Depending on the outcome, he could be the star of not only 2024, but also 2025. Lately, Trump has been giving free rein to some of his more authoritarian impulses. His hypothetical return to the presidency is perceived as a danger to American democracy, El Pais reports in its 2024 analysis.

The US presidential election – scheduled for November 5 – will be the grand finale after a year full of elections around the world.

Biden is running for four more years, but his popularity is very low due to his advanced age (he would begin his new term at 82), rising inflation (with gas and food prices at record highs over the last four decades) and other domestic policy factors such as rising crime and immigration. He has also taken a hit thanks to his foreign policy, regarding his position on the wars being waged against Ukraine and Gaza.

While polls show that Biden would likely lose his bid for re-election if he faced an opponent with less political charge, as “El Pais” writes, the base of the Republican Party loves Trump. At the same time, his revulsion among moderate and independent voters means he’s the Democratic Party’s best bet.

The former president is the favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination. He had the luxury of not participating in the debates with the other candidates. But he has yet to formalize that advantage in the actual primaries, which begin Jan. 15 with the Iowa caucuses. The civil trial for the defamation lawsuit filed by author E. Jean Carroll is scheduled to begin on the same day. From there, judicial and political duties alternate and intermingle throughout the year.

In addition to the civil lawsuits, the former president is a defendant in four criminal cases (Washington, New York, Florida and Georgia), facing charges of a total of 91 offenses. The Washington and Georgia cases involve his attempt to overturn Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election, which led to the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol by his supporters. Trump still maintains the lie that the election was stolen from him, which allowed him to avoid the image of a loser. No other defeated president running for re-election has ever made such a claim of voter fraud.

That is, Trump returns to the polls unaccounted for for his actions to undermine the results of the 2020 election, which puts American democracy under great strain. Trump’s lawyers will be able to postpone some of the trials, but for now, the March 4 court appearance remains on the agenda.

Trump has another trial scheduled for March involving payments of money he allegedly made to cover up scandals that could destroy his 2016 presidential campaign. The most prominent scandal was his alleged extramarital affair with Stormy Daniels. .

Next comes the criminal case for crimes in violation of the Espionage Act, as well as obstruction of justice, for illegally keeping classified material in his possession after he left the White House. A judge in the Southern District of Florida has scheduled a five-week trial to begin on May 20, 2024, though it is also likely to be delayed. The trial that is still pending is in Georgia, for the attempt to steal his election in that state.

Trump has openly vowed to prosecute his political opponents if he is returned to office, in retaliation for all the charges leveled against him. “The reverse could certainly happenhe said in an interview with Univision last November about the possibility of charges being brought against his opponents down the road.

His violent and authoritarian rhetoric has been commented on many times and even with extreme characteristics… Examples are the dehumanization of political opponents, whom Trump has called “vermin that must be exterminated”, or his claims that undocumented immigrants “poison the blood of the country”. These expressions have echoes from Nazi Germany. Trump has repeatedly attacked judges and prosecutors, while he has suggested that the former chief of the Army Staff – Gen. Mark Miley – deserves to be executed. A few months ago, he called for shoplifters to be shot.

Donald Trump

In an interview with Fox News, Trump said that if re-elected, he would become a “dictator” for a day to take some measures… and then it will stop being. Biden’s campaign manager – Julie Chavez Rodriguez – immediately reacted: “Donald Trump has told us exactly what he’s going to do if he’s re-elected and tonight he said he’s going to be a dictator on day one. Americans must believe him.”

Despite (or in part thanks to) the accusations and verbal hyperbole, Trump is leading in the polls not only in his party’s primaries, but also in the general election. Trump leads in the vast majority of key swing states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Arizona. President Joe Biden has seen many voters from traditional Democratic blocs — such as young people, blacks and Latinos — turn their backs on him.

A Trump victory would have huge implications for global geopolitics. A hypothetical second Trump presidency would be characterized by economic protectionism and political nationalism. The former president was reluctant to continue supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion. Not even its commitment to NATO is assured. The potential relationship with China is also unknown, beyond Trump’s musings on tariffs.

The risk of a constitutional crisis is compounded by the prospect that Trump could be elected president and still be found guilty of some of the crimes he is accused of. From the presidency, he could try to stop the prosecution of cases involving him, pardon his allies (such as the imprisoned rioters in the Capitol) and – as he has hinted – prosecute his political opponents, with the department as a weapon Justice.

The November 5, 2024 presidential election is the first since the fateful events of January 6, 2021. Depending on whether Trump ends the year closer to prison or the White House, we will soon know if those who stormed the Capitol that day they will finally get what they wanted…