With an internal referendum on the future of the German Liberals in coalition with the Social Democrats and the Greens, the new year entered for the FDP. Voting for party members had begun before the holidays and ended at noon on January 1.

Of course, only almost 26,000 of the total 72,000 registered members of the Liberals participated in the process, in other words one in three. The question, to which the participants were asked to answer “yes” or “no” was clear: “Should the Liberal Party as a government partner end the coalition with the Social Democrats and the Greens?”

The results of the vote, although not binding on the decisions and the final course of the party, are in any case indicative of the division and the strong concern that prevails within the Liberals about participation in the government of Chancellor Olaf Soltz.

52.24% of members believe that the Liberals should remain in the government coalition until the next federal elections, while 47.76% are in favor of ending the three-party coalition with the Liberals leaving.

Lindner satisfaction, reflection at the base

Satisfied with the outcome of the vote, however, appears the head of the Liberals and Minister of Finance Christian Linder, who in the previous months was the target of severe criticism for his fiscal policy and his manipulations in the preparation of budgets. He even said through platform X that the result of the vote “constitutes an expression of responsibility towards Germany”.

Although top Liberal figures express relief at the fragile “yes” vote of members for the continuation of the government course, at the same time on the other side many figures continue to have doubts about the Liberals’ course, expressing dissatisfaction with the extremely low percentages of party in the opinion polls of the last months.

The Liberals barely reach 5%, thus ranking the party – so far at least – in last place among the German parties that appear to be entering the German parliament.

And all this while voices of the opposition, from among the Christian Democrats and Christian Socialists as well as the far-right Alternative for Germany, are publicly calling for early elections in Germany. The next federal election is scheduled for 2025.

Critical electoral tests in 2024

The initiative for the specific internal referendum was initiated by 598 members of the party. It was also preceded by an open letter from 26 Liberal politicians from the country’s local and state politics, following the extremely negative results obtained by the Liberals in the elections in the states of Bavaria and Hesse in the autumn of 2023.

In Bavaria, the Liberals did not even manage to enter the state parliament, while in Hesse they spent the last minute gasping for the 5% electoral threshold.

In 2024, apart from the European elections, a series of crucial electoral contests are expected in Germany: on June 9 municipal elections in Thuringia, on September 1 state elections in Saxony and Thuringia and on September 22 in Brandenburg. These are states, in which the extreme right has already registered a surprising rise, with the Liberals acrobating between decay and corruption.