Donald Trump will he manage to achieve a sweeping victory already in the first election contest for the anointing of the Republican party ahead of the 2024 presidential election? The answer to the question will be given in ten days in Iowa, the state from which the primaries have started since 1972.

The former president, against whom charges are pending in four cases, will put himself before voters for the first time since he left the White House in 2021.

“As long as he is in the White House, the American dream will be dead,” Trump said during campaign rallies, referring to US President Joe Biden, and vowed that, like in 2016, he would return the country to “its greatness.”

Volunteer army

Despite being indicted in four cases, some of which could result in prison terms, the billionaire former president is polling at 60% of the Republican vote, trailing others far behind. candidates for the anointing of the party.

In Iowa, as in the rest of the US, Trump still has a huge base of voters who remain loyal to him. It also relies on the army of volunteers who plow every corner of this rural state in the US Midwest, handing out leaflets, posters and even the famous red hats.

Will that be enough to win the Jan. 15 primary?

That will be seen that day, when voters go to schools, libraries and fire departments in Iowa to choose, by secret ballot, the man they prefer to receive the nomination of the Republican party.

Hayley and DeSandis follow

Six other Republicans will try to block Trump’s path, but only two appear to have any chance of succeeding.

On the one hand, Nikki Haley, former US ambassador to the UN during Trump’s presidency and the new darling of the American right. A former governor of South Carolina, Haley, 51, is the only female candidate.

On the other is Florida Governor Ron DeSandis, a conservative with extreme positions on immigration and abortion. The 45-year-old has weighed heavily in Iowa and visited all 99 of its counties. He has also received the valuable support of the governor of the state, Kim Reynolds. However, his popularity has plummeted in recent months.

These two candidates gather 11 to 12% of the vote, according to opinion polls. But analysts do not rule out that either one or the other will cause a surprise and deprive Trump of a part of the voters.

If Trump does not achieve the sweeping victory that polls predict in Iowa, he risks looking more vulnerable in the remaining electoral contests.

A week after Iowa comes primaries in New Hampshire and in February in Nevada and South Carolina.

By June, all US states will have voted and the Republican candidate will be announced at the party’s national convention in July. And the Democrats?

The 81-year-old Biden already has the official support of the party despite frequent criticism of his age.

Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and popular author Marian Williamson are also running for the Democratic presidential nomination, but have no realistic hopes of winning it.