Israel, the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Syria, the Red Sea, Yemen, the Houthis… The war in Gaza is beginning to take on greater proportions and spread across the wider region, with the risk of a global engagement closer than ever. The direct involvement of the US and Britain with the air operation in Yemen, on the bases of the Houthis, prove that the war in Gaza has already spread, as the BBC reports in its analysis. A situation that is developing on an increasingly large scale, but also with more protagonists, while the cessation of military aid to Ukraine is a worrying sign, as everything shows that the Middle East has come to stay at the center of world events.

“It is time to stop talking about the risk of the war in Gaza spreading elsewhere in the Middle East. It has already happened”, says initially BBC analyst Jeremy Bowen.

And it continues:

Hopes for curbing incidents rest on the fact that it is still at a relatively low level compared to the worst regional war scenarios.

US and British attacks on the Houthis in Yemen are not just about, as ministers in London argued, freedom of navigation and global trade. They are directly linked to the events in Gaza and represent an escalation of the crisis gripping the region.

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The Houthis immediately vowed to respond. It is also entirely possible that pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria will increase their action against US forces in the region. If this theater heats up more and US forces retaliate, it will be more difficult for US diplomacy to prevent all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah.

The Houthis are also part of the network of allies and proxies, the so-called axis of resistance, that Iran has built to bolster its defenses against its enemies. They are receiving increasingly sophisticated weapons from Iran, but it is best to think of them as allies rather than Tehran’s proxies.

I have spent a lot of time with the Houthis in Yemen and they are a very independent people. They will enjoy clashing with the Americans. They want to be part of this war. What is happening suits both the Houthis and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Enhanced capabilities of Iran and the Houthis

Iran has enhanced its capabilities and the kind of firepower the Houthis have at their disposal. This includes anti-ship missiles, ballistic missiles that have been fired at Israel, as well as attack drones – the same kind that Iran is supplying Russia to use against Ukraine. They are well armed.

It is nothing like the naval capability faced by the US, UK and other coalition members that the Americans have amassed in the Red Sea. But the threat posed by the Houthis is less about the physical damage they can cause and more about the danger to international shipping.

In December, they seized a ship and forced it into one of their ports. They have also fired directly at ships and caused some damage, although they have not sunk any vessels.

Merchant shipping companies looking to get their precious cargo through the narrow Bab al-Mandab strait at the mouth of the Red Sea do not want to have enemy forces firing at them. Because of the risks, insurance costs will skyrocket, which is why so many companies now choose to bypass the passage and go around Africa, around the Cape of Good Hope, rather than use the Suez Canal.

Yemeni

The control of Sanaa and the war with Saudi Arabia

The Houthis have controlled Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, and large parts of the country, including the Red Sea coast, since 2014. In 2015, Saudi Arabia led a coalition, also including the United Arab Emirates, that went to war to try to overthrow them.

The Saudis said the intervention in Yemen’s civil war was to restore the country’s legitimate and internationally recognized government, which the Houthis had overthrown. But a few days after the intervention began, I spoke to senior Saudi officials who told me it was to stop Iran from operating in their backyard. Yemen shares a border with Saudi Arabia.

The Houthis were then bombarded by the Saudis from 2015 until a ceasefire more than a year ago. So a new round of raids is unlikely to intimidate them – they’re used to it.

I don’t think a single round of airstrikes will do more than make them believe that yes, we are on the right track. They want to be seen as a fearless resistance to America and its Western allies, who also support Israel.

The Houthis have said they are carrying out these attacks in the Red Sea because of the war in Gaza, the killing of civilians and severe deprivations imposed by Israel, preventing the supply of food and aid they need to survive in the war zone. They said that if the war in Gaza ended and supplies were allowed in, then they would not threaten the international shipping lane.

The… other view of the war in Gaza

Some critics of US and British support for Israel say an immediate ceasefire in Gaza would be a far better way to stop Houthi attacks than bombing them. If Houthi attacks continued after the ceasefire, the argument is that airstrikes against them would have increased legitimacy.

There is a possibility that this US and British action could prolong or escalate the situation with the Houthis, rather than ending it. Last November, when the Houthis made their first moves in the wider Gaza war with their first attacks on merchant ships off Yemen, I spoke with Mohammed Ali Al Houthi, one of the leading members of their organization. He was very provocative then and I am absolutely sure that the Houthis will continue to be provocative now. They will want to do more attacks, to show that they are defiant and invincible.

The US and UK attacks hit many different locations. While it is not possible to know the exact military capability of the Houthis, it seems unlikely that a round of strikes will have wiped it out.

Regular bombing by the Saudis since 2015 does not appear to have had a significant impact on their capability. Yemen is a mountainous country. Given their experience of the bombings, it is possible that they have tried to cover things up. Iran has apparently sent advisers and trainers to Yemen to help them operate the weapons they supplied, and they will also have thought of ways to survive attacks.

We can gauge how Iran has upgraded the Houthis’ arsenal by looking at the type of weapons they are launching from Yemen. They are more sophisticated, more lethal and therefore more threatening.

When the Houthis seized a merchant ship last month, video of their attack showed well-trained commandos landing from a helicopter. It is more terrifying than the images we often see on TV, of groups of ragged men brandishing Kalashnikovs.

Compared to the power that the US and the UK can wield, there is no comparison, but that is not the point of this kind of war.

If the Houthis, who have supporters across the region, manage to continue to threaten and attack ships in some way, then they will be signaling to their followers that they are not bowing down to the West.