In 2013, Ukraine was one step away from entering the western orbit. The European Union had spent a decade trying to convince Eastern European countries to accept economic reform programs in exchange for access to the European market and the free movement of their citizens. Ukraine, due to its size and geopolitical importance, was the winning ticket.
In November of that year, hours before signing the Association Agreement between his country and the EU in Vilnius, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych claimed unsustainable Russian pressure and returned to Kiev. That same night, thousands of people filled Maiden Square to defend the pro-European agenda. Less than three months later, Yanukovych was forced to flee and Russia unleashed hostilities against the new Ukrainian regime. Virtually all analyzes stress the centrality of NATO (Western military alliance), but Vladimir Putin’s obsession with the Ukrainian question is the regional confrontation between Russia and the EU.
For now, he is the big winner of this diplomatic clash. Playing with the stages, the speeches and even the menus like a screenwriter, Putin has perfectly explored the parade of European officials to Moscow of the last fortnight.
Rushed by the imminence of an election campaign, Frenchman Emmanuel Macron was frustrated by Russian intransigence. Newly sworn in as German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz appeared lost at the start of the crisis and saw his popularity plummet. You don’t have to be a KGB agent to know that the best way to immobilize the EU is to implode the Franco-German engine.
Russia also benefits from the EU’s geopolitical isolation. As much as the United States multiplies the threats, all parties involved know that the Joe Biden administration is neither willing nor able to engage on the Ukrainian front.
Diplomatically, the crisis delays the so-called “Asian pivot”, or control of China’s rise, a central objective of the Democratic administration. Politically, a conflict with Russia within months of the midterm election would be catastrophic for Biden. An absolute majority of the population prefers Washington to keep its distance from Europe’s borders.
The question is whether Putin will be content with the political gains made so far. He still has a unique opportunity to install a pro-Russian government in Ukraine, having secured Belarus’ subservience and helping to crush opposition in Kazakhstan. If a military invasion is rich in uncertainties, the retreat of more than a hundred thousand soldiers, and the economic ruin caused by months of military tension, could also give new impetus to Ukraine’s rapprochement with the EU, defended by a significant part. of the Ukrainians.
The idea of ​​a confrontation between democracies and authoritarianism may seem exaggerated, when we know of the permanent and deep collusion of European countries with dictatorships around the world. But the clash between Russia and Europe is also about a vision of the future. The Brazilian who seeks to understand what is at stake for the Ukrainian can start by answering the following question: would he rather be a citizen of a country on the periphery of the EU or Russia?
