DW/ Stefanos Georgakopoulos

In the days of Trump, American foreign policy was often conducted via twitter.

As president in the period 2017-2021, he openly disregarded existing rules, always putting American interests above all.

Donald Trump canceled a series of international agreements and threatened the NATO military alliance with the withdrawal of the US.

He attacked Germany repeatedly and harshly, while at the same time being decidedly less critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin. A trade war has started with China and the EU. What if the former president returns to the White House?

If the American tycoon is re-elected, his new foreign policy will undoubtedly have dramatic effects on European security policy.

As is well known, Donald Trump rejects the granting of further American aid to Ukraine and argues that the Europeans should shoulder greater burdens to shield Kiev.

As he claims, he gets along particularly well with authoritarian leaders, such as President Putin.

He never gets tired of repeating that he can solve the war in Ukraine in just 24 hours.

The decisions of foreign governments are affected

Historian and political scientist Liana Fix of the Council on Foreign Relations, an independent think tank in Washington, expects that Trump, if he returns to the White House, will open talks with Moscow: “It can be taken for granted that he will try to negotiate with Russia without giving a reason and a role to Kiev”.

Donald Trump could, for example, propose a peace deal on the condition that Ukraine does not join NATO and that it cedes to Russia all the territories it has conquered in the east of the country. Such an agreement would create completely new data.

Not only for Ukraine, but also in Europe, says the scientist. He estimates that it would also have an impact on Russia’s behavior towards Europe and especially towards NATO member countries.

The fact that Trump already has a large influence on the US political scene is most strikingly demonstrated by the internal political dispute over further aid to Ukraine.

In Congress, President Biden’s administration is unable to pass new military aid for Ukraine because it is facing resistance from Republicans, especially those loyal to former President Trump.

A possible re-election of Trump will not only have an effect within the US. It is already influencing even the politics of powerful international actors, who are delaying important decisions. They await a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House hoping for a better deal.

Putin is in no hurry in Ukrainian

For example: Harvard professor Graham Allison analyzes in his article for Foreign Policy magazine the possible calculations of Russian President Putin. In the months since the impasse in Ukraine, the Kremlin leader’s intention to end the war has been rampant. But now President Putin cannot be excluded from hoping for Trump’s re-election to the US presidency. Chances are good that Trump

it will create more favorable conditions for Russia than those that Biden can offer today and that Ukrainian President Zelensky could agree to at the given time. “From Putin’s point of view, it makes no sense to make any concessions before the US presidential election,” says historian Liana Fix.

If Trump does return to the presidency, he will do so with more confidence than ever and as someone who managed to overcome all opposition and prove that his election in 2017 was no fluke. Expert Liana Fix estimates: “After Trump’s first election to the American presidency, it could be argued that he was the exception to the rule and that American foreign policy will remain credible. In the second election, however, we will have to ask ourselves whether Trump is finally the norm.”