Because of Donald Trump, US support for Ukraine is up in the air. Chancellor Scholtz is visiting Washington to help President Biden.

Olaf Solz does not travel to Washington empty-handed. The member states of the E.U. they decided a few days ago to support Ukraine with another 50 billion euros until 2027. And as Solz had commented, this decision “is also a good message to the USA.”

Joe Biden had himself assured Ukraine that in the war with Russia it can count on its support “as long as necessary”. But Republicans in Congress are blocking further aid from being sent. Why; “Because Donald Trump thinks it’s not in his political interest,” said Biden, clearly displeased. And while the U.S. they don’t help Ukraine, the more they facilitate Putin.

By bringing 50 billion euros as a “gift” to Ukraine, Chancellor Soltz hopes to help resolve the impasse in Washington. However, Henning Hof from the German Foreign Policy Association is not optimistic: “In view of the election, the Republicans do not seem willing to help the Biden administration,” Hof tells DW, adding that it is therefore possible that “the U.S. to stop supporting Ukraine.”

Solidarity with Ukraine is collapsing

This particular scenario would be the worst possible, as the U.S. it is by far the most important supplier of weapons systems to Ukraine. In such a case Ukrainian President Zelensky would want Germany to lead the supply – and Scholz has already warned his compatriots that this could indeed happen. Already this year, the German budget foresees expenses exceeding 7 billion euros for military aid to Ukraine. If the above inevitable scenario is finally confirmed, the already burdened budget will be further burdened.

However, as Scholz pointed out, as a “middle power” Germany would not be able to fill the void that a military superpower might leave. Hence, a comprehensive response by the EU is necessary. “Germany is certain that it cannot assume such a leading position of responsibility on its own”, agrees the head of the CDU, Friedrich Merz. However, the solidarity front towards Ukraine is collapsing in Europe as well. Even for the package of 50 billion euros, Hungary and Slovakia put up strong resistance.

Even in Germany, conditions are not favorable in terms of support for Ukraine. European elections will be held in June and then other electoral contests in various states. And there are two parties, the AfD on the right of the political spectrum and Sarah Wagenknecht’s fledgling alliance, which criticize the aid mission to Ukraine and favor some concessions to Russia.

Ukraine’s invitation to NATO is off the agenda

Soltz and Biden agree not to include Ukraine’s invitation to NATO on the agenda of their bilateral meeting. This issue could be discussed in the summer during the Alliance meeting in Washington.

Last year, Biden stressed that it is still too early to discuss Ukraine’s accession to NATO in the short term, as Ukraine is “not yet ready” for such a thing. During a visit by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to Washington, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that Ukraine “will become a member of NATO”, but avoided mentioning exactly when this would happen.

The German government also does not take a clear position and rather prefers to discuss this particular possibility after the end of the war. Because there is concern that in the event of Ukraine joining the Alliance, then its members will be jointly responsible for defending the country against Russia.

Stoltenberg’s predecessor, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, however, estimates that this is a “particularly dangerous argument”, since it offers Putin “an incentive to continue the attack on Ukraine indefinitely”.

And if Trump wins the election?

So far, Social Democrat Chancellor Scholz has been invited to negotiate with Joe Biden of the Democrats. But as it seems, Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate in the November presidential elections. And as scary as this scenario seems for Berlin, it cannot be ruled out in any case.

However, Scholz does not want to meet with Trump during his visit to Washington – a view which, according to a YouGov poll, is shared by 55% of Germans. But almost as many – 52% – consider that the German government has not prepared sufficiently for the possibility of Trump’s re-election: only 10% consider that the relevant actions of the government are sufficient.

What would Trump’s return to the White House mean for German-US relations, other than the suspension of support for Ukraine, which would be so dramatic? Henning Hoff believes the administration has diversified on some of the issues Trump has criticized Germany on.

“In terms of low defense spending – at least this year more has been spent than the 2% target set by NATO. Dependence on Russian gas – this has now been eliminated. And about the trade balance that is supposed to be in the interest of Germany and Europe – that is no longer the case either. German foreign trade has weakened relatively.”

The possible exit of the U.S. from NATO, which Trump mentioned time and time again, now seems unlikely. Because Trump would need the consent of 2/3 of Congress for such a decision, he would have to overcome a very high hurdle. Beyond that, however, “there are still many ways to limit US military involvement”, observes Hoff, referring in particular to US security guarantees to Europe. And the expert believes that the Europeans are still not sufficiently prepared for such a scenario: “The situation is serious and we are going to face difficult times”.