As the polls had predicted, none of the 25 candidates who ran in the first round of elections won 40% of the vote, making Costa Rica go into a second round on April 3 between the two most voted candidates.
While polls predicted that José María Figueres, of the National Liberation Party, would get the most support (27.4%), none of the polls projected that Rodrigo Chaves, of the Social Democratic Progress Party, would be the second most voted candidate.
Chaves, who occupied the fourth position with only 9% of the voting intentions, surpassed Nineth Saborio, from the Christian Social Party (15%) and Fabricio Alvarado, from the Evangelical Confessional Party (13%).
After the first counts, and with a narrow difference between Alvarado and Chaves, it was finally the latter who will compete with Figueres in the second round.
Two no less surprising data emerged from this election day. The first refers to the increase in abstention, which went from an average of 30% to 41%.
There is consensus on the weight that the delicate health situation caused by the pandemic in Costa Rica has taken. Indeed, Liberationist leader Oscar Arias announced the day before that, on medical advice, he would not vote in his electoral college. Everything indicates that a significant proportion of older people made the same decision.
The abstention among young people is related to the second major phenomenon of the day: the resounding defeat of the ruling party, Acción Ciudadana (PAC), which did not get even 1% in this election.
This tiny electoral support had indeed been predicted by the polls. But given the level of undecided voters, which remained at about 40% by the end of the campaign, which included a high proportion of hidden votes, many observers expected greater final support for the PAC.
However, this party played an unprecedented role in the history of Costa Rica: the outgoing party not only completely lost the elections but was also left out of Parliament.
This phenomenon is also unusual because its candidate has publicly adhered to progressivism, which has had such good results in the south of the continent. It is likely that part of the abstentionism of young people comes from those who, not repeating their vote in the PAC, have preferred abstention.
The other big loser of the day was Christian social candidate Nineth Saborío. From the beginning of the campaign, polls predicted that she would accompany Figueres in the second round.
But the candidate’s shortcomings soon became evident: an experienced politician in her party administrations, characterized by an insubstantial speech and which bets everything on a later negotiation, without starting guidelines.
Therefore, in the debates, the competitors insisted on asking him for concrete proposals, but they received nothing more than promises of negotiations.
In recent television meetings, the candidate sought refuge in an image of a politically harassed woman, which seems to have been counterproductive.
Some of the historical leaders of his party, such as Luis Fishman, warned of the mistake of having proposed his candidacy, something that was confirmed by the difference between the support in the deputies, where the PUSC managed to maintain its strength, and the fall of Saborío. , who in the end placed fourth in the electoral race.
Chaves made a surprise change for the second round, going from a 4% vote intention at the beginning of the campaign to 16.65% of the votes.
The World Bank economist, finance minister of the current PAC government until he resigned due to disagreements with President Carlos Alvarado, presents a severe diagnosis of the factors that led to the economic and political crisis of the current situation and also proposes strong solutions to face it. .
His speech is seen in a controversial way: by some, as authoritarian and superb, based solely on technical sufficiency; for others, he has the robust and firm proposal that the country needs to emerge from economic stagnation and the crisis of political confidence.
This candidate also managed to advance to the second round overcoming the sexual harassment allegations he received during his time at the World Bank, which, although not proven in the bank’s lawsuit, have been persistently used by his opponents.
In fact, after the last debate, social networks considered Chaves’s candidacy dead, as he was systematically bombed.
Several observers point out that it is difficult to determine whether these comments undermined support for Chaves (who would have obtained even more votes if they had not taken place) or if, on the contrary, they were understood as personal attacks on the candidate, which caused the vote to skew in your favor.
The surprises that arise in the first turn increase the difficulty of envisioning what the second turn will be.
Both candidates agree that the country is in what they describe as a national emergency, but differ on how to tackle it.
For Figueres, the crisis will be overcome by opening the country to the world and taking a technological leap, especially in terms of energy and connectivity, which requires changes in education, while only proposing moderate reforms to the existing institutional framework.
Chaves, on the contrary, aims to harmonize the introduction of successful international programs in Costa Rica with substantial changes in the country’s public and private institutions.
Another difference is related to the fact that Figueres has a large team of cadres and Chaves is building his own.
The fact that Figueres surpassed Chaves by ten points in the first round suggests that the probability calculation favors the liberationist candidate.
However, polls show a high rejection of Figueres (people who declare that they would never vote for him), which has remained at around 40% throughout the campaign.
Given that Chaves also presents a significant rejection vote, everything seems to indicate that the election of the next president will follow the discard method (choice of the least worst), which has been manifested in previous elections.
This will likely eliminate the grace period for the next president, who will have to face an agenda full of problems and a divided legislature, where Liberação has only a third of the benches and the Chaves party, 17% of the seats.
A horizon of considerable turmoil is ahead.
Translation of Giulia Gaspar
