Despite widespread European support for Ukraine, nearly two years after the Russian invasion, just 10% of European citizens believe Russia can be defeated, according to an EU-wide survey, while the most likely scenario for the end of the war considered some form of “compromise settlement”.

This change, when last year more Europeans were saying that Ukraine should recover all its lost territorieswill require politicians to adopt a more “realistic” approach which will focus on defining what an acceptable peace should really mean, argue the authors of the report, which is published by Guardian.

“In order to support continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders will need to change the way they talk about the war,” said co-author Mark Leonard of European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)which commissioned this particular poll.

Most Europeans “they are focused on preventing a Russian victory”but they don’t think Kiev can win militarily, Leonard said, which means that the most persuasive argument for continued aid would be an initiative leading to a sustainable, negotiated peace which favors Kiev rather than a victory for Putin.”

The January poll in 12 EU member states – including France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden – found that the stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive, growing fears of a change in US policy and the prospect of a second US presidential term for Donald Trump are fueling pessimism about the outcome of the war.

It was held before Ukraine retreated over the weekend from the eastern city of Avdiivka, giving Russia its most significant military victory since the capture of Bakhmut by Wagner troops in May 2023. Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

The research, “Wars and Elections: How European Leaders Can Maintain Public Support for Ukraine,” found that only one in 10 Europeans in the 12 countries surveyed believed Ukraine would win on the battlefield, while twice as many (20%) predicted a Russian victory. Even in the most optimistic member states surveyed such as Poland, Sweden and Portugal less than one in five (17%) believed Kyiv could prevail.

To all countries, the poll showed that the most common view, shared by an average of 37% of respondentswas that the war would end in a compromise settlement.

In Sweden (50%), Portugal (48%) and Poland (47%), respondents were more likely to say that Europe should help Ukraine fight back, while in Hungary (64%), Greece ( 59%), Italy (52%) ) and Austria (49%), preferred to pressure Kiev to accept a settlement. In France, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain, opinions were more evenly divided.

The poll showed that many Europeans increasingly saw Russia’s war against Ukraine as their immediate concernwith 33% saying it had a greater impact on their country and Europe (29%) than the war in the Middle East compared to 5% who said the opposite on both counts.

Trump’s possible return to the White House was generally seen as bad newswith 56% of respondents in the 12 countries surveyed saying they would be very or somewhat disappointed if the former president were re-elected.

The only exception was Hungary, where 27% of respondents said they would be pleased with Trump’s return and 31% were disappointed. Likewise, supporters of only one major political party, Hungary’s Fidesz, were hoping for a Trump victory.

Among other far-right parties that previously expressed support for Trump, only about a third of voters for Germany’s AfD, Austria’s FPÖ or the Brothers of Italy said they would welcome his returnwith support for Trump even weaker among supporters of France’s National Rally and Poland’s Law and Justice.

If the US stopped military aid to Ukraine under a Trump presidency, 41% of Europeans said the EU should either increase its support or keep it at current levelswhile 33% would prefer the EU to follow the example of the US.