Putin flirts with Latin America to expand influence amid Ukraine crisis

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Amid pressure on neighboring Ukraine in recent weeks, President Vladimir Putin is also busy trying to expand Russia’s influence thousands of miles away in Latin America.

He spoke with Nicaraguan dictator Daniel Ortega for the first time since 2014, called the leaders of Venezuela and Cuba and welcomed Argentine President Alberto Fernández, who promised during his visit to the Kremlin to reduce his country’s dependence on the United States. . This Wednesday (16), he also met with Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

The Brazilian kept the trip despite repeated requests from US officials to delay the trip as the West tries to pressure Russia over Ukraine.

The flurry of personal diplomacy directed at Latin America by Putin during the riskiest period of his tenure often draws on ties that go back to the Cold War and sheds light on the global nature of his ambitions: to exert influence even in distant regions. He is reinforcing engagement and forging ties with an expanding swath of the West — including countries like Brazil and Argentina, traditionally close to Washington.

The operation began when Putin threatened to take non-specific “military-technical measures” if he does not obtain security guarantees over Eastern Europe that he demands from the US and NATO. Kremlin officials have hinted that such measures could involve military deployments in the West — leading analysts and state media to feverishly speculate that the actions could include audacious measures such as sending nuclear missiles to friendly countries in Latin America.

As always, Putin’s true intentions are difficult to understand. This gesture could be a mockery, a way to complicate the West’s reaction to the threat of invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, Latino leaders have their own agendas and may be using Putin to gain influence over the US — which, along with China, still wields far greater influence in the region.

But the recent diplomacy is a reminder that, for the Russian, a broader objective is paramount in his foreign policy: to bring the country back to the position of a great power capable of defying the United States.

“Putin sees Latin America as an area that is still important to Americans,” says Vladimir Rouvinski, a professor at Icesi University in Cali, Colombia, who studies Russian-Latin America relations. “This is reciprocity for what is happening in Ukraine.”

Putin’s flirtation has been in the works for years. He knew how to capitalize on Soviet-era ties, local resentments and the whims of certain leaders. During the pandemic, while rich countries accumulated vaccines against Covid-19, the Kremlin took another opportunity: in at least five Latin American countries (Argentina, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Paraguay), Sputnik V was the first to arrive. .

“You were there when the rest of the world was not,” Fernández told Putin.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said Latin America “was and remains for us a region of political goodwill, economic opportunity, cultural proximity and like-mindedness.” According to the ministry, “Russia has never participated in the colonization of the region, in the exploitation of its peoples, nor in conflicts, wars or other uses of force.”

Despite Russian efforts, the US and China have much greater economic ties to the region. In 2019, South America exported $5 billion to Russia, compared to $66 billion for the Americans and $119 billion for the Chinese.

Beijing’s influence, in particular, has grown thanks to funding tens of billions of dollars for infrastructure projects, from an elevated subway in Colombia to a space station in Argentina.

Russia’s specialty is political support for countries that are becoming isolated on the global stage. Putin has been a diplomatic lifeline for authoritarian leaders in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. And for Bolsonaro, who has sharply criticized China and questioned President Joe Biden’s electoral victory, Putin extended an invitation when it seemed many other countries would not.

After Donald Trump’s defeat, Bolsonaro began asking US officials for an invitation to visit Washington or at least a phone call from the new president, according to two senior US officials who insisted on anonymity. He would have warned that if he didn’t get a response from Biden he would seek to set up a summit with another world power.

Putin at the time was making stronger proposals. The two presidents discussed potential expansion of trade and agreements on science and security, according to US officials.

Asked recently about the lack of contact between Biden and Bolsonaro, Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, pointed to conversations between Secretary Blinken and his Brazilian counterpart.

Still, the Brazilian president faced intense criticism for the trip, including from allies. “I think it’s wrong in many ways,” says Ernesto Araújo, Bolsonaro’s foreign minister until last year. “In other circumstances, fine. But with the crisis imminent, no.”

When asked in mid-January about the possibility of Russia putting military infrastructure in Venezuela or Cuba, a Russian vice chancellor said he wouldn’t rule out anything. Within days, Putin maintained ties with the leaders of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua — conversations, according to the Kremlin, that confirmed the countries’ “strategic partnership” with Russia.

The US State Department dismissed talks of possible Russian developments as “bravado”. “If we see any movement in that direction, we will respond quickly and decisively,” said department spokesman Ned Price.

Analysts do not believe Putin will send weapons to the region, in part because it could undermine the goodwill he worked to create across Latin America. Still, Russia has been instrumental in arming closer allies in the region. Moscow sold weapons and tanks to Cuba and Nicaragua, aircraft and anti-missile systems to Venezuela – with whom it also carried out bilateral military exercises.

US officials believe the Kremlin is helping Venezuela’s military, as well as using the country for intelligence and money laundering operations.

Americans are also concerned about Russian efforts to interfere in Colombia’s May election, possibly to help leftist candidate Gustavo Petro, who could be a friendlier negotiating partner for Putin than the current right-wing government. US officials have already observed Russian online operations trying to sow unrest in South America.

But in the short term, analysts say, the most important benefit will be diplomatic support.

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