The rift among Turkey’s opposition parties is boosting the hopes of Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) to regain control of the Istanbul municipality in March 31 municipal elections.

The outcome of the vote in Turkey’s largest city is seen as decisive for Ekrem Imamoglu’s political futurewho is considered a potential leader of the largest Turkish opposition party, the Republican Party (CHP) and possibly a future president of the country.

five years ago, Ekrem Imamoglu and CHP deliver a blow to Erdogan in municipal elections gaining control of Istanbul, the birthplace and stronghold of the Turkish president, the city from which he began his political career as mayor, but also of Ankara, after 25 years of rule by the AKP and its Islamist predecessors.

But, Erdogan, who has dominated Turkey’s political life for a quarter of a century, prevailed over a united opposition in last May’s election securing his re-election, while the AKP and its allies secured a strong majority in the Turkish parliament.

Since, the alliance that helped Imamoglu win in Istanbul has collapsed, and both the nationalist opposition and his Kurdish allies have announced their own candidates for the municipal elections.

Recent MAK polls show that the matchup will be close: Imamoglu gathers 41% of the votes and is only 1.5 percentage points ahead of AKP candidate Murat Kurum. According to pollster Murat Jezitsi, Kouroum leads with 44.1% of Imamoglu who collects 43.5%.

“The race is breast to breast, on the razor’s edge”says o Ozer Senjarhead of the polling company Metropoll, pointing out the importance of Istanbul for Turkey’s political affairs.

“If Ekrem Imamoglu wins these elections in Istanbul and these elections are not canceled in any way due to objections, he will become the president of Turkey in 2028”says.

Fragmented opposition

But Imamoglu’s hopes were dampened by the decision of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (DEM) and the nationalist IYI party, whose voters supported him in 2019to download their own candidates.

“The damage that the IYI and DEM parties will do to Ekrem Imamoglu must be taken seriously”says Ozer Senjar.

The latest Metropoll poll shows Kurdish voter support for Imamoglu fell to 32 percent last month from 35 percent in January. IYI voter support fell to 45% from 64%.

Dissension within the CHP itself, which elected a new leader this year, adds to Imamoglu’s problems, as many in the party are unhappy with the choice of candidates in the election.

“The biggest risk for the opposition in Istanbul is that it appears more fragmented than ever”, says Ertan Aksoy, head of Aksoy Research. His survey was conducted 40 days ago and shows Imamoglu 3-4 percentage points ahead of his AKP opponent.

Imamoglu accused the Turkish government of making it difficult to provide services in Istanbul since 2019. The campaign is now focused on solving traffic problems in the city of 16 million people and the need for urban transformation given the risks of a major earthquake in the region.

During the election campaign, Erdogan made sure to reduce the difficulties faced by the opposition to the main body of his speeches.

“No change was able to cure the CHP’s political exhaustion. Those who come and go just make it worse,” he said in a speech this week.