Arms imports into Europe have almost doubled in the past five years, largely due to the war in Ukraine, while Russian exports have more than doubled, a SIPRI report released today suggests.

Ukraine has become the world’s fourth-largest arms importer, while France has replaced Russia as the world’s second-largest arms exporter, behind the US, according to the Stockholm-based International Peace Research Institute.

In the period 2019-2023, arms imports into Europe registered a jump (+94%) compared to the previous five years, the report says.

This increase is largely due to the war in Ukraine, explains Katarina Jokic, a researcher at SIPRI, to AFP.

As the volume of deliveries can fluctuate widely from one year to the next, SIPRI studies the data over a five-year period, which allows much clearer conclusions to be drawn about trends.

As of February 2022, at least thirty countries have delivered large amounts of military aid to Ukraine, the report reveals. But other European countries simultaneously increased their imports, most of them coming from the world’s biggest arms exporter: the US.

Between 2019 and 2023, 55% of imports into Europe came from this country, up from 35% in 2014-2018.

Decrease in Russian exports

For Ms. Jokic, this is partly explained by the fact that most European countries are NATO members and partners in the development of weapons such as the F-35 fighter jet.

At the same time, this surge in US arms imports reflects the Europeans’ rush to act, to buy weapons as soon as possible, even if it meant not focusing on developing new weapons systems.

US exports increased by 17% globally in the period under review and accounted for 42% of global arms exports.

Russia, long the world’s second largest arms exporter, no longer holds that position. It recorded a 53% decrease in its exports from 2014 to 2023.

Moscow is not only exporting fewer weapons, but also to fewer countries: in 2019, it exported to 31 countries, and in 2023 to no more than 12.

There are also “major changes in the policies (implemented by) its main customer, China,” Ms. Jokic points out.

Historically a key customer of Russian arms industries, Beijing has turned in recent years to its own production.

Exports of Rafale

However, China still continues to absorb 21% of Russian exports, while India remains their main destination: this country accounts for over 34%.

France benefited from the decline in Russian exports, which saw its own increase by 47%, making it the second largest exporter of military equipment in the world (11% in the period 2019-2023).

Paris in particular recorded sales of the Rafale fighter jet outside Europe, Katarina Jokic notes.

The war in the Gaza Strip, which broke out on October 7 following an unprecedented attack by Hamas on southern Israel, is already having an impact on the country’s arms imports, mainly due to US arms transfers, as well as new military aid, as well as of accelerating pre-existing contracts, notes SIPRI researcher Zain Hussain.

But the long-term impact is difficult to predict at this stage.

“We see some European states being pressured (…) to limit arms deliveries to Israel in the context of its (military) operations because of potential violations of international humanitarian law,” he explains.