Global oil demand is expected to “increase more than forecast” in the first quarter of 2024, mainly due to an improving outlook in the United States and increased demand from ships circling Africa to avoid attacks by Houthi rebels in of Yemen, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Demand is expected to reach 102.03 million barrels per day in the first three months of the year, 1.7 million more than in the first quarter of 2023 and 270,000 barrels more than the previous estimate, the IOC said today in his monthly report.

According to the agency, this is mainly explained by US demand supported by “increasing petrochemical activities and a relatively buoyant economy”.

“Furthermore, disruptions to international trade routes as a result of the Red Sea unrest are lengthening shipping distances and causing an increase in ship speeds, thereby increasing fuel demand,” the IOC adds.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels have launched frequent attacks since November against commercial and military ships transiting the Red Sea in support of the Palestinians in Gaza.

However, for the year as a whole, “while growth for 2024 was revised upwards by 110,000 bpd from last month’s report, the pace of expansion is slowing, from 2.3 million bpd in 2023 to 1.3 million barrels per day,” notes the IOC.

Growth slowing to a pace closer to its “historical trend” following a post-Covid recovery period will not, however, prevent demand from reaching a historic peak in 2024, according to the ILO.