On Sunday, millions of voters in Turkey go to the polls to elect mayors and administrators in local elections expected to shape the country’s future political landscape as Erdogan seeks to win back key cities he lost five years ago.

One of the fears of the opposition, as mentioned in an analysis by the Washington Post, is that a victory for Erdogan’s party could be an impetus for the Turkish leader to seek constitutional changes that could allow him to rule beyond his current term.

Meanwhile, keeping the municipalities of key cities would help strengthen Turkey’s opposition, which has become fragmented and introverted after losing last year’s presidential election.

The battle for Constantinople

In the last local elections held in 2019, a united opposition won the municipalities of the capital Ankara and the commercial hub of Istanbul, ending the ruling party’s 25-year rule in the cities.

The loss of Istanbul was a major blow for Erdogan, who began his political career as mayor of the metropolis of nearly 16 million in 1994.

Erdogan nominated Murat Kurum, a 47-year-old former minister of urbanization and environment, to run against the current mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu — a popular politician from the center-left Republican People’s Party, or CHP. Imamoglu has been touted as Erdogan’s formidable rival and a possible presidential candidate in the 2028 elections.

This time, however, Imamoglu, 52, is running in local elections without the support of Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party or the nationalist IYI Party who are fielding their own candidates.

Meanwhile, a new religious-conservative party, the New Welfare Party, YRP, aggressively enters the election race threatening the Turkish president. He is seeking votes from conservative and religious voters disillusioned with Erdogan’s handling of the economy.

Polls show a race between Imamoglu and Kurum, who have announced infrastructure projects that will strengthen the seismic resistance of buildings as well as measures to reduce the city’s chronic traffic congestion.

The opposition is also expected to retain Ankara, where incumbent mayor Mansur Yavas, who has also been seen as a presidential contender in the next election, remains popular.

Erdogan will seek to retain power

Leaving nothing to chance, Erdogan, who rose to power as prime minister and then president for more than two decades, has been holding campaign rallies across the country for mayoral candidates.

Analysts say regaining Istanbul and Ankara and achieving a strong presence at the polls will harden Erdogan’s resolve to introduce a new constitution that could allow him to rule beyond 2028, when his current term expires. The current constitution limits the presidency to two terms. Erdogan, 70, ran for a third term last year, citing a technicality because the country switched to a presidential system in 2018 and his first term was served under the previous system.

According to the Washington Post, Erdogan and his allies currently do not have enough seats in parliament to enact a new constitution, but another electoral triumph could sway some conservative opposition lawmakers to switch sides, analysts say.

Earlier this month, Erdogan said Sunday’s election would be his last under the constitution. Critics have characterized his comments as a ploy to win support votes from supporters suffering from the financial crisis, as well as a strategy to push for constitutional amendments.

The opposition hopes for reconstruction

A six-party opposition alliance, led by the CHP, fell apart after a devastating election defeat last year. Backers of the alliance were disappointed after it failed to unseat Erdogan despite economic turmoil and the aftermath of a devastating earthquake.

If the CHP keeps the big cities it would help rebuild the party and allow it to present itself as an alternative to Erdogan’s ruling party. The loss of Ankara and Constantinople could, on the other hand, end the presidential ambitions of Javas and Imamoglu.

The CHP underwent a leadership change soon after the election defeat, but it remains to be seen whether the party’s new chairman, 49-year-old pharmacist Ozgur Ozel, can rally supporters.

Election campaign with the advantage of power

As in previous elections, Erdogan uses the advantages of power, often exploiting state resources during the campaign. About 90 percent of Turkey’s media is controlled by the government or its supporters, according to media watchdog groups, promoting the ruling party and its allies’ campaigns while not highlighting the opposition.

State broadcaster TRT devoted 32 hours of broadcast time to the ruling party in the first 40 days of the election campaign compared to 25 minutes to opponents, according to the opposition.

During the election campaign, Erdogan issued implicit warnings to voters to support candidates supported by the ruling party if they want to receive government services. He raised the minimum wage by 49% to bring some relief to households, despite his government’s efforts to control high inflation.

The Turkish leader also continued to showcase his country’s success in the defense industry during his campaign rallies. A prototype of Turkey’s Turkish-made KAAN fighter jet made its maiden flight last month, with critics arguing it was planned before the election.

The votes of the Kurds

Kurdish voters are estimated to make up 10% of the electorate in Istanbul and their votes could be decisive in the mayoral contest.

Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party — now known as the People’s Equality and Democracy Party, or DEM — chose to back Imamoglu in the 2019 municipal elections, helping him win. This time, however, the party is fielding its own candidates, in a move that could take votes away from Imamoglu.

But some observers say the party is deliberately fielding two low-profile candidates in a tacit endorsement of the current mayor. The Kurdish party traditionally has men and women sharing leadership positions.

At the same time, the DEM Party is expected to win many of the municipalities in Turkey’s southeastern regions that are mainly inhabited by Kurds. The question remains whether the party will be allowed to keep them. In previous years, Erdogan’s government has removed elected mayors accused of having ties to Kurdish militants and replaced them with state-appointed governors.

During a rally in the predominantly Kurdish city of Hakkari on March 15, Erdogan urged voters not to vote for people who he claimed would transfer municipal funds to the “terrorist organization,” referring to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.