Taking Istanbul from the hands of his rival, Ekrem Imamoglu, is the bet Erdogan wants to win from today’s election process, in which 61.4 million Turks go to the polls to vote for mayors.

The popular Imamoglu won Turkey’s most economically and politically powerful city five years ago despite obstacles put up by Erdogan, who now wants it back, in an election battle that will come down to the wire.

Istanbul, a city of 16 million inhabitants, is also the birthplace of Erdogan.

Whatever happens there is seen by analysts as a crucial test of whether the opposition can seriously threaten Erdogan and his party in the next presidential election.

“Istanbul is his home. Losing Istanbul in the 2019 local elections was devastating for him,” Ihsan Aktas, of the communication department at Istanbul Medipol University and chairman of the Genar Political Research Centre, told the BBC.

Erdogan was born in Istanbul on February 26, 1954. He grew up selling bagels on its streets before entering politics in the 1970s.

He started as the head of the youth wing of an Islamist party and worked his way up the ladder to become mayor, prime minister and finally president of Turkey.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured a third term in last year’s presidential election, but in this vote the main opposition party, the secular CHP, hopes to keep the major cities it won in dramatic fashion five years ago, Istanbul, Ankara and Antalya.

By 2019, Erdogan’s AKP and its Islamist predecessors had ruled the two largest cities for 25 years.

“Even though the opposition lost to Erdogan in the 2023 presidential election, there is still a strong connection between winning in Istanbul and winning in Turkey,” says Seda Demiralp, political science professor at Isik University.

“If Imamoglu manages to keep Istanbul, the opposition will still have high hopes for the 2028 presidential elections.”

Ihsan Aktas agrees that whoever wins will have enormous influence beyond Istanbul: “When you have the support of Istanbul, you become a protagonist in national politics. And on a global level.”

Multicultural Istanbul is home to one-fifth of the Turkish population, 15 million people, and has a diverse electorate with different political, ethnic, religious and economic backgrounds.

Erdogan’s chosen candidate to run for Istanbul, Murat Kurum, is 47 and a former environment minister. However, the battle is essentially between Imamoglu and Erdogan.

Imamoglu, a 52-year-old former businessman, rose to prominence as the mayor of the city’s little-known Beylikduzu district and is seen as President Erdogan’s biggest challenger in decades.

“In 2019 we closed a chapter and on March 31 the AKP will go down in history,” he told supporters at a rally in Beylikduzu.

Another victory would boost his political influence and pave the way for him to run for the presidency in four years, political analysts say.

Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas is also expected to run in 2028 and his path to victory on Sunday is seen as safer.