When he took over as Germany’s premier in December, Olaf Scholz had a not-so-distant list of possible difficulties. In addition to replacing the mighty Angela Merkel, there was Covid-19 in a record wave of cases and the climate crisis, with ambitious goals to be achieved. But soon another theme emerged in Europe: the crisis in Ukraine pitting Russia and the West.
The rise in tension wasn’t exactly unexpected, given that Vladimir Putin began mobilizing troops in November, but the German government’s reaction has put Scholz in a starting position seen, internally and externally, as excessively withdrawn — reinforcing, in a way, the image of of predictable technocrat that the politician had in the campaign.
The biggest democracy in Europe, the biggest economy in the euro zone and strategically located between the two poles of the crisis, Germany also had, under the charismatic Merkel, a history of mediating with Putin’s Russia – with more episodes of condescension than confrontation. .
In January Berlin spoke of paying the price to retaliate against Moscow in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, but the economic risks are certainly balanced. About half of the gas consumed in the country is imported from the Russians and, between the two countries, the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline waits for tensions to pass before it goes into operation – American Joe Biden said that will not happen in the event of an attack, but was not fully supported by the German.
Faced with the dubious stance, earlier this month Germany was called “hypocritical” by Latvia, Scholz “invisible” by the press, and her approval rating dropped 17 percentage points to 43%.
“There was a communication problem. Scholz has a more concise and discreet profile, but he has already realized that he has to constantly explain the government’s actions. It was a deep learning curve”, says Henning Hoff, from the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, where he is executive editor of the Internationale Politik Quarterly.
After becoming a hashtag with the question “Where is Scholz?”, the prime minister opened a official twitter account on the last 13th (in addition to the personal), as part of an attempt to change his style. After visiting Joe Biden in Washington, he went to Kiev and Moscow on consecutive days, repeating the steps that Frenchman Emmanuel Macron had taken days before.
Alongside Volodymyr Zelensky, he said that the question of Ukraine’s entry into NATO “was not put into practice”. In Moscow, his arrival followed an announcement by Putin of the beginning of the withdrawal of part of the troops that were exercising close to the borders of the neighbor – a little reversal of the tensions that days later would rise again.
This Saturday (19), the prime minister welcomed other leaders at the annual Munich Security Conference, in which British Boris Johnson spoke about the crisis (“The plan we are seeing is for what may actually be the biggest war in Europe since 1945 “), US Vice President Kamala Harris (“We’re talking about war where there hasn’t been war for 70 years”) and Zelensky himself.
If nothing more substantive resulted from the German’s action, Julia Friedrich, a researcher at the Global Public Policy Institute, sees two other points that signaled a change in Scholz’s stance. In interviews given after the meeting with Putin, he commented on the closing of the human rights NGO Memorial in December and the arrest of Alexei Navalni, the main opponent of the Russian president, calling it a “conviction incompatible with the principles of the rule of law”. “.
“With his trip to Moscow, Scholz became visible and used this chance to be clearer than he really is. Instead of insinuating, he named these themes”, evaluates Friedrich, an expert on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Hoff highlights another moment of his visit to Moscow. Repeating that Ukraine’s entry into NATO is not on the agenda, he amended: “I don’t know how long the president [Putin] intends to stay in charge. I have a feeling it will be for quite some time, but not forever.” As Constanze Stelzenmüller of the Brookings Institution wrote in the Financial Times, it is not every day that someone calls Putin a dictator to his own face, albeit implicitly; he has been in power since 1999.
“Scholz thus suggests that he doesn’t see Putin as a normal Russian government, but as a kind of autocratic regime — which in fact he is,” says Hoff.
On the other hand, according to Friedrich, the prime minister maintained his ambiguous position in relation to Nord Stream 2, without having clearly mentioned the pipeline when saying that sanctions possibilities will be considered. “You can interpret this in a positive way, that actions will be tough when the time comes, or negatively, that you’re trying to avoid a statement about the project because you’re somehow trying to keep it.”
The issue is also delicate within the coalition that supports Scholz — formed by his party, the SPD (Social Democrat), the Greens and the liberals of the FDP. The environmentalist party declared itself against the gas pipeline even before the election, and the SPD itself is a major embarrassment.
Days before Scholz began his travels, it was announced in Germany that former Prime Minister Gerhard Schröder (1998-2005) was being appointed to the board of directors of Russian state energy company Gazprom. Also a social democrat, the politician has already defined Putin as an “impeccable democrat”.
Despite the tensions, analysts estimate that the coalition remains without major shake-ups. “The way in which the three parties are united is going better than expected. They are now determined to prevent international or domestic issues from leading to a crisis in the government”, analyzes Hoff. The “traffic light” (allusion to the colors of the subtitles, red, green and yellow) is the first triple coalition to rule Germany since the post-war period.
Internally, Scholz still expects a recovery with good news related to the fight against Covid. Shortly after returning from Moscow, he announced that restrictions such as the vaccination pass and the use of masks should be gradually lifted by March 20.
But another of the challenges of its initial list has still had less positive results to sell. With a commitment to transform Germany into a carbon neutral country by 2045, Minister Robert Habeck (Economy and Climate Action) already said last month that the goals for this and next year are unlikely to be achieved. The decarbonization of the economy is seen as an opportunity for the Scholz government to make a mark, distancing itself from Merkel.
Externally, in addition to its actions in the Ukraine crisis, Berlin is expected to adopt a more critical approach towards China – which has recently sealed its alliance with Moscow against the West. “It is difficult for Germany to continue with this super-cautious stance, with a foreign policy so focused on the economy. I think that the new minister Annalena Baerbock [Relações Exteriores, dos Verdes] leading in that direction,” says Friedrich.
If Macron is re-elected in France in April, Scholz would see someone who is both a rival for the position of European leader (to fill Merkel’s vacuum) and an ally for the idea of a sovereign continent emerge. “These are stronger ambitions. Merkel was a fantastic crisis manager, but not someone who really took big steps forward — unless it was really necessary,” says Hoff.
It remains to be seen whether the situation in Ukraine will continue to trump Scholz’s plans.
