As the war in Ukraine rages on for a third year, with hundreds of thousands of casualties, some Americans argue that the United States should pursue a negotiated peace, rather than helping Ukraine fend off a Russian invasion.

This is a common position among the ruling MAGA wing of the GOP—for example, Rep. Eli Crane (R-AZ) has argued that military aid to Ukraine “should be completely off the table and replaced with a push for peace talks’ – as well as the ‘anti-war’ left and some self-styled ‘realists’.

But after months of delays, the top Republican in the House of Representatives announced that the speaker of the chamber is negotiating with the White House to advance funding for Ukraine, according to the Associated Press. The package departs from the original proposal for $95 billion in foreign security aid and has been modified to accommodate Republican requests.

US President Joe Biden has repeatedly rebuked Republicans for blocking the approval of aid to Ukraine.

The argument is that US support makes the Ukrainians overconfident – including the costly and largely failed 2023 counter-offensive – and the US has no problem sacrificing an unlimited number of Ukrainians to hurt Russia. Therefore, weakening Ukraine by withdrawing aid will encourage it to seek a reasonable settlement. In this vision, Ukraine cedes territory currently controlled by Russia and formally promises never to join NATO, the US steps in as a “guarantor” and violence finally ends, the Daily Beast writes.

In “The Nation,” Adolph Reed, Jr. writes that he is “outraged by Biden’s bellicose adventurism in Eastern Europe” with “rhetoric to fuel hostilities between Russia and Ukraine” and argues that the United States “seems determined to fight to the last Ukrainian.”

Reed doesn’t try to explain how the US supposedly tricked or coerced Russia into amassing 190,000 troops and invading in 2022, nor tricked Ukraine into resisting Russia’s attack when it supposedly wants to surrender. It assumes that Russia wants peace, the United States wants war, and Ukraine has no power.

But what if Russia’s war aims are expansionary, it is unwilling to negotiate, and if it gets concessions now, it will violate the settlement when it is ready to push for more, just as the 2022 invasion violated previous agreements? No one can answer…

Some world leaders, such as Brazil’s president, have gone further, calling for negotiations now and chiding Ukraine for asking for too much. Pope Francis caused controversy in March when he told Ukraine to “have the courage to raise the white flag”.

But while Trump’s right appears to be driven by a desire to see Russia succeed, even well-intentioned calls to cut off aid to Ukraine in the hope that it will lead to a negotiated settlement rest on a very dubious premise: that Russian leader Putin wants peace.

Putin

Most people like peace. Putin doesn’t think so… His words and actions show that he prefers the pursuit of sovereignty to peace and believes that his tolerance of the sufferings of war is an advantage over more peace-minded adversaries. He did it in Ukraine in 2014 and in Georgia in 2008. Because Putin wants and can.

Waiting for the 2024 US election

One of the major factors in the Ukraine war this year is the upcoming US presidential election, because there is a realistic possibility that the US will switch sides.

The current president and Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, supports Ukraine and democracy in general. Biden told America’s NATO allies in Europe that he would support Ukraine for “as long as it takes.”

In contrast, former president and current Republican candidate Donald Trump expresses sympathy for Russia and Putin’s model of authoritarian leadership. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Trump publicly praised the move as “smart” and “genius.” He urged Republicans in Congress to block aid to Ukraine, even after they had won concessions on US border security.

If Trump becomes president again, it is clear that his plan for war is to pressure Ukraine into giving Russia what Putin wants. Trump is openly in favor of ceding territory from Ukraine to Russia, including territory that the Russian military has been unable to capture and hold.

The Russian government can see all this and surely believes it will achieve a more favorable settlement in Ukraine with Trump in the White House rather than Biden. And since Putin has a different perception of death and destruction, he will continue the war until 2024, no matter what.

This means that peace is not an option this year, even if the West wishes to see it. The choice facing the United States in Ukraine is not between peace and war, but between a weakened Ukraine pushed back by Russia and a well-armed Ukraine defying Russia. The future will show…