The prospect of a major regional war in the Middle East hangs by a thread after the attack launched by Iran against Israel on Saturday night, as the Guardian website points out in its analysis, with the fate of the region in the hands of three people.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet is set to meet to decide how to respond to the attack as Iran has warned that if Israel strikes back it will hit harder.

Netanyahu’s ministers voted to entrust the decision to the war cabinet, which includes Israeli Prime Minister Yoav Gallad, Defense Minister and Benny Gantz, a Netanyahu rival who joined the government as minister without portfolio after Hamas attack on October 7.

These are the three who will decide the next step, with the fate of the region now in their hands.

In the hours before the war cabinet meeting, Netanyahu and Biden spoke by phone for 25 minutes, during which, according to some reports in the Israeli media, the US president urged Israel to show restraint.

Biden issued a statement minutes after the call in which he did not give clear advice to Netanyahu, but noted that with US help “almost all the incoming drones and missiles” had been shot down.

This “extraordinary” defense capability, Biden argued, was in itself “a clear message to his enemies that they cannot effectively threaten Israel’s security.”

As of early Sunday morning, the only casualty reported from the airstrike was a 10-year-old boy in Israel’s southern desert, from the country’s most marginalized community, the Bedouin. A military base in the south suffered minor damage.

In the face of the expected Iranian attack, American officials had assumed just such an outcome: that the Iranian missiles would land in the desert and cause no significant casualties. In that case, the officials predicted, Washington would strongly urge against a hasty Israeli response.

Iran is clearly hoping for such a mild response. In a message delivered through its UN delegation, Tehran suggested hopefully that in the wake of its retaliation: “The issue can be considered over.”

The target is Iran’s nuclear facilities

Both Biden and the Iranians are well aware that Netanyahu would ideally like to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, which he has long viewed as an existential threat to Israel. Reducing them to rubble would be very difficult without US help, but it is likely that he and other Israeli hawks will try to seize this opportunity to fulfill this ambition.

NBC News reported Saturday night that some top government officials are “concerned that Israel could respond quickly to Iran’s attacks without thinking about possible consequences afterward.”

Government officials are well aware that Netanyahu is motivated to continue the hostilities, as it prevents the collapse of his coalition and new elections.

While the damage to Israel was minimal, Israeli officials could argue that it was not thanks to Tehran, but to the reliability of Israeli air defenses and its allies, mainly the US, UK and Jordan. Jordan risked drawing condemnation from the Arab world for intercepting some of Iran’s drones as they crossed its airspace.

This joint action, prepared in the week before the Iranian attack, almost certainly saved lives and perhaps prevented a wider war. It could also serve as reminder of Israel’s dependence on the US for the safety of Israelis.

Will Israel respond?

In the short term, Washington can take solace from some signs that any Israeli response will at least not be immediate. Israel has called for a UN Security Council meeting on the attack, which will take place at 4pm New York time on Sunday. It would be surprising if a counterattack was launched before this session.

Another possible sign that there may not be a response is Gallant’s conversation with his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin, after the attacks. According to the Israeli Defense Ministry, Gallant “stressed that the defense establishment is prepared for any further attack on the State of Israel” but made no mention of Israel’s counterattack.

A third positive sign early Sunday was an assurance from an Israeli official cited by the New York Times that “Israel’s response will be coordinated with its allies.”

Washington is likely to remind Israel in the coming hours and days of the benefits of having withstood Iran’s fury largely unscathed.

The attack has diverted global attention for now from Israel’s conduct in the war in Gaza. In addition, the Iranian attack is also likely to dispel murmurs in the US Congress about limiting arms supplies to Israel because of Gaza. Now, such restrictions can be imposed by Israel’s supporters, as they leave America’s top ally in the Middle East defenseless in the face of the proven Iranian threat.