The country is currently on the brink. Take for example the migration problem, which the government itself has singled out as a major one: the first flight to Rwanda is expected to take place in 10 to 12 weeks, according to Prime Minister Sunak, but may be stalled as there is a risk of recourse to Court of Human Rights. In terms of the country’s security and defense spending, things look the same as before. This week their increase to 2.5% was announced, but until 2030 and over a period of 6 years. This means that another government may or may not commit to this promise and depending on whether it adapts to its own policies. Even though the economy is undoubtedly showing signs of recovery, it is unknown when the Bank of England will decide to cut interest rates.

Only the certainty of holding national elections could enable the citizens of this country to choose decisively what to vote for. So far, however, even this issue is in the general and vague rule, that “they must be held no later than January 28, 2025”, because according to law, that is also the latest date that citizens could be called to the ballot box.

The ambiguity of the second semester

Despite repeated pressure from his opponents, journalists and members of the Conservative party, to clarify the situation, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is keeping a ‘silent fish’ on this issue. In an interview with Sky News this morning, Sunak insisted on the same pattern. “I have repeatedly been clear on the issue of national elections”, “I will not say anything more than what I have already said”. But what he has already stated is that “the national elections will be held in the second half of the year”. But this practically means that from July onwards, any date is possible for national elections. The obligation of the government and its leader is only to declare it at least one month before the official date.

Senior Conservative party sources quoted by the Sunday Times today said “there is a 90% chance the election will be between the dates of October, November and December”. At the same time, analysts see a very likely scenario that the coveted date will be announced at the annual Conservative Party Conference on October 2 and November 14 will be set as the day voters will be called to the polls. The reason the ruling party seems to want to delay the elections is to be able to implement some of its policies, in the hope that the people will be convinced by the changes. The first big test, however, of Sunak’s leadership in his two-year leadership, is the upcoming municipal elections on Thursday.

Leadership crisis – another problem

Things are not particularly optimistic neither for him nor for the party. They are expected to suffer back-to-back defeats, with early estimates suggesting the Conservative party could lose up to half its council seats across the country. An additional headache for Rishi Sunak is the lack of trust both the voters and the members of his party have in him. An exclusive Sky News poll this week even showed that nearly two-thirds of Conservative voters in 2019 have no faith in Sunak.

If the defeat is so big for the ruling party, another domino effect is ready to take down the 44-year-old British prime minister. There are rumors that several MPs have as a possible scenario the filing of a motion of impeachment against their leader. However, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps told The Times that “now is neither the right place nor the right time for a change in leadership.” It is important to mention that in the opinion polls the Conservative party continues to lag behind the official Labor opposition with a difference of around 20%.