How close the world is to a generalized conflict on its soil Europe; Analysts may not be able to give percentages, but based on their estimates, the probability is higher than at any other time in modern history. In the last 24 hours, Russian forces seem to have achieved significant victories on the war front in Ukraine, which has caused enormous concern among Western powers, much more so in Europe. A Europe, however, that displays the usual… plurality of opinions, with Emmanuel Macron leaving open – once again – the possibility of sending military forces to the side of the Ukrainian army, Viktor Orban not even accepting help in arming Kiev and the other leaders opposing Macron’s words, stressing that this would it was devastating.

But why is Macron “coming forward” and pushing for more substantial help, even involvement of European forces in the war in Ukraine?

Europeans’ fears of Russian expansionist war

The answer arises from the fears expressed by several European countries about Russia’s long-term plans. Moldova requests reinforcement of its borders, as the Transnistria it is an area that is in the immediate interests of Moscow. Poland is under pressure both from Ukrainian territory, where military operations are being conducted, and from Belarus, which can strike at any moment, as Russia’s direct ally in the region.

The Baltic countries have expressed serious fears about Russia’s intentions, despite being members of NATO and having the Alliance’s full coverage.

Some Western leaders such as US President Joe Biden, Germany’s defense minister and Denmark’s defense minister have expressed concern that Russia’s long-term plans may include an attack on NATO.

In the “frame” is also Finland, which considers Russia a direct threat for more than one reason. Characteristic are the statements of the head of the Finnish armed forces, who warned Europe and NATO about Moscow’s next moves. As General Yane Iaakola pointed out, Russia is very likely to test the unity of the Alliance.

Why is Macron taking a hard line?

The most “hard-line” line, however, towards Russia, is expressed by the French president, Emmanuel Macron. Why; Because he believes that if the war in Ukraine is lost, Russia will be greatly strengthened and will attempt to continue its expansionary war in other states as well.

In his interview with the Economist, the French president emphasized that the war in Ukraine must not be lost at all costs. And the truth is that the war in Ukraine has – perhaps – entered its most critical turning point. The reason; The 5-month pause in the supply of weapons systems from the USA to Ukraine. A pause that may prove fatal for the outcome of the war and which proves how negative was the effect of the -accidental?- parallel military conflict in Israel and Gaza.

Macron, however, strongly believes that Russia should not emerge victorious from the war in Ukraine, because in this case, Europe will be faced with an immediate danger.

His attitude, however, carries very serious risks. The first concerns the involvement of a NATO force in the war. Moscow has made it clear that this will mean all-out war. Both France and Russia are nuclear powers. Everyone can perceive the danger that will arise from a possible entanglement or collision.

Moscow profited from the war in Gaza

In any case, Ukraine seems unable to defend itself against Russia. Moscow benefited from the war in Gaza and the crisis in the Middle East, as the West showed that it cannot supply weapons systems to two major wars at the same time.

The information about a possible escalation of the Russian attack in mid-May, combined with the apparent inability of the West to equip the Ukrainian defense, show that the future of Ukraine will be decided in the next period. Developments may be rapid and unpredictable, while Kiev’s resistance appears to be softening.