Israel is giving Hamas a week to accept the ceasefire plan, according to the WSJ citing Egyptian officials.

Otherwise he will start the military operation in Rafah.

More specifically, although the publication does not specify when the ultimatum was given, taking into account that Egyptian officials report that Cairo worked with Israel to put together the revised ceasefire proposal that was presented last weekend, it is estimated that the timeline the leeway Hamas has at its disposal is one week.

In any case, Hamas’s military leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to be holed up in tunnels in the enclave and making the final decisions, has yet to respond, apparently seeking to buy time and possibly win better terms. in the armistice agreement.

“Sinowar is expected to reject any agreement that does not include a credible path to end the war,” the officials typically predict, summarizing that Hamas “sees” vague details in the proposal and thus shows doubt.

From the side of the Arab mediators it is estimated that “Sinowar believes that he has already won the war, whether he survives or not, by opening the eyes of the world to the plight of the Palestinians and bringing the conflict in the Gaza Strip to the forefront of world affairs.”

What does the agreement provide?

The initial stage of the deal calls for a 40-day ceasefire during which Hamas must release women and civilian hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

In a later stage, Israeli troops will withdraw from a coastal road in Gaza and head inland to facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid.

At the same time, this would allow displaced civilians to return to their homes in the northern Gaza Strip. Hamas will provide a list of hostages still alive. Israel estimates Hamas is holding about 100 hostages and the bodies of another 30 who were either killed in the October 7 Hamas attack that sparked the war or died in captivity.

Within the third week, both sides will begin indirect negotiations aimed at establishing a permanent calm. Three weeks after the first phase, Israeli troops must withdraw from central Gaza.

The points of disagreement

However, both sides want the end of the war, but on their own terms.

Hamas leaders have for months denied anything short of a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and a permanent end to the fighting. The mediators from the Hamas side will seek clarification on these issues when they return to Cairo.

Israel wants all the hostages to return home safely, the defeat of Hamas in the field and its expulsion from Gaza so that there is no repeat of another attack like the one on October 7 that sparked the war.

Israel has declared that the invasion of Rafah is critical to achieving these goals, with Netanyahu warning that Israel will invade the city with or without a deal.

Netanyahu also faces a lot of domestic pressure. Thousands of people have joined protests calling on him to make an immediate deal on the hostages. At the same time, his cabinet hardliners have threatened to bring down the government if he ends the war.

The Biden administration, which provides Israel with vital military and diplomatic support, opposes an invasion of Rafah unless Israel provides a “credible” plan to protect civilians.

The balance of the two sides

Israeli leaders are weighing whether to accept a deal that would delay or prevent the announced ground invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah, a scenario that, however, runs counter to Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledges of “total victory” and the destruction of Hamas.

Accordingly, Hamas leaders are being asked to decide whether to forfeit their biggest bargaining chip, the hostages, as the deal may secure a long-term truce but does not discount the end of the war.

The plan negotiated by Egyptian mediators is primarily aimed at preventing an Israeli assault on Rafah, which the US says will have devastating consequences for the more than one million displaced Palestinians who have taken refuge on the Egyptian border. The Egyptians have also warned Israel about the operation, fearing a huge influx of Palestinian refugees into its territory.