Lithuanians are called to the polls today for the first round of presidential elections, after an election campaign dominated by security concerns, as Vilnius tries to strengthen its defenses against neighboring Russia.

The Baltic country of 2.8 million people, a former Soviet republic bordering the heavily militarized Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, is feared to be the next target if Moscow wins the war against Ukraine.

Polls give the outgoing president, 59-year-old Gitanas Nausenda, a comfortable lead over seven other candidates, including Prime Minister Ingrid Simonite and a well-known lawyer, Ignas Wegele.

Observers are predicting a victory for Nausenda in the second round of the election, which will be held in a month.

The Lithuanian president determines the country’s foreign policy in cooperation with the government and participates in EU and NATO summits. He must consult the government and obtain the approval of parliament for the appointment of the most senior officials.

Record defense budget

The 48-year-old Wegele, who rose to prominence during the pandemic for opposing mandatory vaccination, is presenting himself as an alternative to current politics and promises “more transparent” governance.

The 49-year-old Simonite defends conservative views in economic matters and liberal in social matters. Among other things, he supports same-sex unions, an issue that continues to divide Lithuania.

Simonite is running for the second time in the presidential election, after losing in the second round to Nausenda in 2019.

Lithuania, a member of the EU and NATO, is one of Ukraine’s most important donors, spending a large part of its budget on defense, 2.75% of its GDP. The Simonite government wants to increase this percentage to 3%.

Vilnius intends to use these funds to purchase tanks, additional anti-aircraft defense systems and to host German troops on its soil. Berlin plans to station around 5,000 troops in Lithuania by 2027.

None of the candidates dispute these plans.

Beijing’s reaction

However, the candidates disagree on Lithuania’s relations with China.

Bilateral relations soured in 2021 when Vilnius allowed Taiwan to open a diplomatic mission with the name of the island, diverging from the current diplomatic practice of using the name of the capital Taipei to avoid upsetting Beijing.

China, which considers Taiwan part of its territory and opposes any support for the island that could give it any international legitimacy, has downgraded diplomatic relations with Vilnius and halted exports to the country.

Nausenda stated during the election campaign that he considers it “necessary to change the name of the diplomatic mission”. Simonite is opposed, while Wegele supported Nausenda.