Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to end the war in Ukraine and negotiate a ceasefire that recognizes the current battle lines, four Russian sources told Reuters, adding, however, that Putin is ready to continue to war, if Kiev and the West do not respond.

Three of the sources with knowledge of the discussions in Putin’s entourage said the veteran Russian leader expressed frustration to a small group of advisers over what he sees as Western-backed attempts to derail the negotiations as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s decision. block conversations.

“Putin can fight as long as he wants, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to ‘freeze’ the war,” said the fourth source, a senior Russian person who has worked with Putin and has knowledge of the talks. that take place between high-ranking officials in the Kremlin.

These sources asked not to be named because of the sensitive nature of this matter.

Reuters spoke to a total of five people who have worked with Putin at a high level in politics and business. The fifth source did not comment on the possibility of the war ‘freezing’ on the current front lines.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, responding to a request for comment, said the Kremlin chief has repeatedly made clear that Russia is open to dialogue to achieve its goals, saying the country does not want “perpetual war.”

Ukraine’s foreign and defense ministries did not respond to inquiries.

Last week’s appointment of economist Andrei Belausov as Russia’s defense minister was seen by some Western military and political analysts as a move that puts the Russian economy on a permanent state of war in order to achieve victory in a protracted conflict. The decision followed pressure on the battlefield and advances by the Russians in recent weeks.

But the sources said Putin, who was re-elected in March to a new six-year term, would prefer to use Russia’s current momentum to put the war behind him. They did not immediately comment on the new defense minister.

Based on what they know of discussions at the highest levels of the Kremlin, two of the sources said that Putin is of the view that the gains so far in the war are enough for him to be able to ‘sell’ a victory to the Russian people.

Europe’s biggest land conflict since World War II has cost tens of thousands of lives on both sides and led to sweeping sanctions against the Russian economy.

Three sources said Putin understands that any major new advance will still require nationwide conscription, which he does not want, with one source – who knows the Russian president – saying his popularity has plummeted since the first conscription in September 2022.

Nationwide conscription terrified part of the population in Russia, causing hundreds of thousands of conscripts to flee the country. Polls showed Putin’s popularity dropping by several points.

Peskov said Russia does not need conscription and instead recruits contract volunteers into the armed forces. The prospect of a ceasefire, or even peace talks, seems remote at the moment.

Zelensky has repeatedly stated that a peace on Putin’s terms is unsustainable. He has vowed to take back lost territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. In 2022, he signed a decree formally declaring any talks with Putin “impossible.”

One of the sources predicted that no deal will be possible while Zelensky is in power, unless Russia bypasses him and reaches a deal with Washington. But US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, speaking in Kiev last week, told reporters he did not believe Putin was interested in serious negotiations.

Conversations in Switzerland

Ukraine is preparing for talks hosted by Switzerland next month aimed at unifying views internationally on how to end the war. The talks are being called at the initiative of Zelensky, who has said that Putin will not attend. Switzerland has not invited Russia.

Moscow has said the talks are not credible without its own presence there. Ukraine and Switzerland want Russia’s allies, including China, to join.

Speaking in China on May 17, Putin said Ukraine might use the talks in Switzerland to convince a wider group of countries to back Zelensky’s demand for a complete withdrawal of Russian forces.

The Swiss foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“We are ready for discussions. We never refused,” Putin said in China.

The Kremlin maintains it does not comment on the progress of what it calls a special military operation in Ukraine, but has repeatedly said Moscow is open to the idea of ​​talks based on “the new realities on the ground.”

Responding to questions on the matter, a US State Department spokesman said any peace initiative must respect Ukraine’s “territorial integrity, within its internationally recognized borders” and described Russia as the only obstacle to a peace in Ukraine .

“The Kremlin has yet to show any real interest in ending its war, quite the opposite,” the spokesman said.

In the past, Kiev has dismissed Russia’s alleged readiness for talks as an attempt to shift the blame for the war to it.

Kiev argues that Putin, whose aides have repeatedly denied that he was plotting war before invading Ukraine in 2022, is a man who cannot be trusted to keep a deal.

Russia and Ukraine have also said they fear the other side will use any ceasefire to rearm.

Terrain

Putin’s insistence on “locking in” any territorial gains in a deal is non-negotiable, all the sources said.

Putin, however, would be prepared to compromise on the ground he now holds and ‘freeze’ the conflict on the current front lines, four of the sources said.

“Putin will say that we won, that NATO attacked us and that we maintained our sovereignty, that we have a land corridor to Crimea, which is true,” said one of the sources, who did their own analysis.

A ‘freeze’ of the conflict along current lines would result in Russia holding significant parts of four Ukrainian regions, which Putin formally incorporated into Russia in September 2022, but without full control in none of them.

Such an arrangement would fall short of the goals set by Moscow itself at the time, when it declared that the four Ukrainian regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson—now belonged entirely to it.

Peskov said there can be no case of returning the four regions that are now permanently part of Russia, according to its constitution.

Another factor shaping the Kremlin chief’s view of ending the war is that the longer it drags on, the more hardened veterans return to Russia, dissatisfied with their postwar job and income prospects, a fact which will likely create tensions in society, said one of the sources, who has worked with Putin.

“Russia will push further”

In February, three Russian sources told Reuters that the US rejected an earlier proposal by Putin for a ceasefire to ‘freeze’ the war.

If a cease-fire is not reached, Putin wants to grab as much territory as possible to increase pressure on Ukraine while trying to take advantage of unexpected opportunities to gain even more territory, three of the sources said.

Russian forces control about 18 percent of Ukraine and this month attacked the northeastern region of Kharkiv.

Putin relies on Russia’s numerically large population compared to Ukraine to maintain a larger manpower even without conscription, thanks to unusually high economic benefits for those who join the military.

“Russia will push further,” said the source who has worked with Putin.

Putin will slowly seize territory until Zelensky makes an offer to end the war, the person said, saying the Russian leader has expressed the view to advisers that the West will not provide enough weapons, denting Ukraine’s morale.

Leaders from the US and European countries have said they will stand by Ukraine until there are guarantees of its secure sovereignty. NATO countries and their allies say they are trying to speed up arms deliveries.

“Russia could end the war at any time by withdrawing its forces from Ukraine, rather than continuing to launch violent attacks against Ukrainian cities, ports and civilians every day,” the US State Department said in response to a question about arms supplies. .

All five sources said Putin told advisers he had no plans for NATO territory, echoing his public comments on the matter. Two of the sources spoke of Russian concerns about the growing risk of escalation with the West over the conflict in Ukraine.