Claudia Sheinbaum will likely become the country’s first female president. The problems are pressing: immigration, drugs, violence and crime. Presidential elections today in Mexico and the country with the most Spanish-speaking inhabitants in the world is facing an electoral contest that will determine the course of the country. After six tumultuous years under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, two women are leading the race to succeed him: Claudia Scheinbaum of the ruling Morena party, who is in first place and a long way from the second-placed woman, Sochil Gálvez, common opposition candidate. The stakes are high. In the last six years, institutions, civil society and the independence of the courts have come under considerable pressure. The election will also determine whether the ruling Morena party can defend its primacy and advance the country’s reorganization.

Claudia Sheinbaum, the clear favorite

Claudia Scheinbaum, candidate of the left-wing populist party Morena, is the clear favorite. The former mayor of Mexico City and granddaughter of Jewish immigrants from Lithuania is a seasoned politician. Her party has made significant electoral gains in recent years and holds about two-thirds of all governments in the 32 federal states. Importantly, Sheinbaum has the support of current President Obrador. Despite his continued popularity with the population, he cannot run for re-election because the constitution limits the term to six years. Scheinbaum studied physics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, where she earned a bachelor’s degree, then a master’s and a doctorate in energy engineering. She completed her PhD after four years at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California, where she analyzed energy consumption in Mexican transportation, published studies on the evolution of energy consumption in Mexican buildings, and earned a PhD in Energy Engineering and Physics. He then joined the teaching staff of the Autonomous University of Mexico and the Mexican Academy of Sciences.

Socil Gálvez, a successful businesswoman and senator from the state of Hidalgo, is stepping down with the opposition alliance Fuerza y ​​Corazón por México (Strength and Heart for Mexico), which brings together conservative, center-right and left-wing parties. In contrast, Claudia Sheinbaum is seen as charismatic and approachable, a woman of the people who, until recently, used to ride a bicycle in Mexico City. Polls give Sheinbaum 55% of the vote, while her opponent Sochil Galvez may reach around 30%.

Popular social programs against poverty

Sheinbaum is also betting on the continuation of the reforms started under President Obrador. The outgoing president’s undiminished popularity – opinion polls put his approval rating above 60% – is probably also due to the state social programs he launched. However, observers disagree about the sustainability of these programs. “Social programs and a 110% increase in the minimum wage in real terms during his tenure brought tangible improvements for the poor population,” says Gerold Schmitt, head of the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation in Mexico, in an interview with Deutsche Welle . “This population is also likely to have felt recognized and valued for the first time. This is a subjective factor that should not be underestimated.” Hans Blomeier, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mexico, comes to a different conclusion. “The social benefits of the Obrador government are not based on structural changes, but on debt-financed cash transfers to poor sections of the population. But during the election campaign, however, neither side wants to publicly admit that this form of social redistribution cannot be financed sustainably’.

Violence and the War on Drugs

A central theme of the election campaign is the rampant violence across the country. Mexico has suffered for years from a high crime rate and drug war. Gangs and cartels battle for control of the drug trade, leading the country to outbreaks of violence and insecurity in many areas. According to official figures, 1,890 people were killed last year in clashes between powerful cartels. Since the start of a controversial military operation against drug cartels in 2006, more than 450,000 people have been killed in the country, with another 100,000 missing. Even during the election campaign, elected officials and candidates have been attacked during campaign appearances or even killed in the streets.

“Even if the Obrador government cannot be seen as the cause of the situation, the reasons are complex, go back decades and can be sought elsewhere, in the downplaying and tolerance of the problem of organized crime and cartels,” he says Hans Blomeier

Immigration and relations with the USA

Another pressing issue in this election is immigration. Mexico is a country of origin and a country of transit for many who want to reach the US. The challenges from this situation are multiple: humanitarian crises at the border, tensions with the US and problems at home caused by the reception and care of migrants. Last year, more than 2.4 million immigrants crossed the US southern border. Most of them came from Central America and Venezuela. For Gerold Schmitt, immigration management is the most important challenge for the next president: “Mexico effectively fulfills the function of the immigration reception center for the US and that of the policeman on the southern border with Guatemala.” The immigration movement has no end in sight – and the situation will worsen if the US closes its borders even further under a possible new Trump administration.

Room for maneuver for the future president

Will the favorite Scheinbaum, who is considered rather colorless and not particularly charismatic, be able to get out of the shadow of her political mentor López Obrador, if she wins as expected? Gerald Schmitt is sure he will, because Mexican presidents wield a lot of power during their time in office. However, the future majority ratios in the House of Representatives and the Senate will be decisive. An – unlikely – two-thirds majority would give her the chance to push through constitutional changes without the conservative opposition. “Otherwise, Scheinbaum will be forced to negotiate a lot of things,” Schmitt believes.

Today Mexico will not only elect a new president. In the largest election in Mexico’s history, nearly 100 million people will also elect a new Congress, the governments of nine federal states and more than 20,000 public offices. Xans Blomeier also believes that the future composition of Congress will be decisive for the future political direction of the world’s largest Spanish-speaking country. “From a democratic point of view, it is desirable that the voters not only give a clear mandate to the new government, but also provide effective democratic counterweights to Congress, so that the democratic and constitutional setbacks of the current government are not overcome by the next government with a constitutional majority.” .

Editor: Irini Anastasopoulou