The limited-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah of the past eight months has escalated in recent days, raising fears of a full-scale war between the two sides and an expansion of the northern front on the border with Lebanon.

Indicative of the situation is the announcement of the US State Department, with which it warns that Washington does not want a total war and that it seeks a diplomatic solution, while adding that Israel has the right to defend itself from Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran.

At the same time, inside Israel political pressure is mounting for tougher action against the armed group.

Why are they fighting?

The exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel began on October 8, a day after the Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked communities in southern Israel, sparking the war in Gaza.

Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, says its attacks are aimed at supporting Palestinians hit by Israeli bombardment of Gaza.

The war in Gaza has caused a regional spillover of conflict as it has drawn Iranian-backed fighters across the region. Hezbollah is widely considered the most powerful member of the Iranian-backed network known as the Axis of Resistance.

While linked to Gaza, the conflict has its own dynamics as Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in several wars with the latest being in 2006.

Israel has long viewed Hezbollah as its biggest border threat because of its growing arsenal and enclaves in Syria.

Hezbollah’s ideology is largely defined by the conflict with Israel. It was established by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in 1982 to fight Israeli forces that had invaded Lebanon, waging a years-long guerrilla war, leading Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000.

Hezbollah considers Israel an illegitimate state established in the occupied Palestinian territories and advocates its destruction.

How the war between Israel and Hezbollah will be fought

According to Israeli researcher Tal Beeri, head of the research department at the Alma Institute, a full-scale war this time would exceed the scale of the one in 2006.

In particular, according to what he claims, Hezbollah’s main firepower is the rockets with which it can target the entire territory of Israel with accurate shooting capability. The area that will mainly come under the greatest volume of fire is the entire northern area up to Haifa.” “In the first week or two of the war, it will be almost impossible to live a normal life,” notes the Israeli researcher.

According to estimates by the Research Institute, Hezbollah has 150,000 rockets, 65,000 rockets with up to 80 km, 5,000 rockets and 80-200 km range missiles, 5,000 rockets with a range of 200 km, 50 km, 50 km or more. – and hundreds of advanced missiles, such as anti-aircraft missiles or cruise missiles. Estimates show that if war breaks out, Hezbollah will launch many thousands of drones and missiles against Israel every day.

The think tank’s war scenario predicts that Hezbollah will try to launch an invasion of the Galilee, although not on the scale of thousands of terrorists as it planned before October 7. However, he will try to infiltrate using tens if not hundreds of fighters.

The price of conflict

The conflict has already taken its toll on both sides as tens of thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes on both sides of the border. Israeli airstrikes hit areas where Hezbollah operates in southern Lebanon, as well as the Bekaa Valley near the border with Syria.

Israel has also occasionally struck Hezbollah enclaves in other locations, most notably Beirut where a senior Hamas commander was killed on January 2.

Israeli strikes have killed around 300 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon, many of them in 2006. At the same time, around 80 civilians have been killed, according to a Reuters tally.

In terms of the human toll Israel has paid, attacks from Lebanon have killed 18 Israeli soldiers and 10 civilians.

In Israel, the displacement of so many Israeli residents has raised a major political issue. The Israeli government seeks the return of residents to the northern border on September 1, when the new school year begins.

Can the situation escalate?

Despite the ferocity of previous hostilities, the situation has so far been considered a relatively “limited standoff”, which could however now develop into a dangerous escalation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that Israel is prepared for strong action in the north. He warned in December that Beirut would turn “into Gaza” if Hezbollah launched an all-out war.

Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, said on Tuesday that the group does not seek to widen the conflict, but also said that Hezbollah is ready to fight any war thrown at it.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, he said that Hezbollah had used a small part of its capabilities. Any move by Israel to expand the conflict would be met with “devastation and displacement” in Israel.

Previous wars have hit Lebanon hard as in 2006, Israeli strikes leveled large areas of Beirut’s southern suburbs controlled by Hezbollah, completely destroyed Beirut’s airport and damaged roads, bridges and other infrastructure. Almost a million people in Lebanon fled their homes.

In Israel, 300,000 people fled their homes to escape Hezbollah rockets and about 2,000 homes were destroyed.

Hezbollah has possessed a much larger arsenal since 2006, including rockets it claims can hit all parts of Israel.

It has demonstrated advances in its weaponry since October, shooting down Israeli drones, launching its own drones against Israel and launching more sophisticated guided missiles.

Israeli troops have invaded Lebanon several times, reaching as far as Beirut in 1982, an invasion aimed at crushing Lebanon-based Palestinian rebels.

Can escalation be avoided?

Washington and Paris are seeking de-escalation.

“We’ve heard Israeli leaders say that their preferred solution is a diplomatic solution. And obviously that’s the solution that we prefer and that we’re trying to pursue,” US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on Tuesday. The United States considers Hezbollah a terrorist group.

Hezbollah has left open the possibility of a deal that would benefit Lebanon, but says there can be no talks until Israel stops its attack on Gaza.

Israel has also said it is open to a diplomatic settlement that would restore security in the north, while preparing for a military offensive to achieve the same goal.

“Anyone who thinks they can hurt us and we will be idle is very mistaken,” Netanyahu said on Wednesday. “One way or another we will restore security in the north.”

The US official at the center of diplomatic contacts, Amos Hochstein, brokered a diplomatic deal between Lebanon and Israel in 2022 over their disputed maritime border.

Hochstein said on May 30 that he did not expect peace between Hezbollah and Israel, but that a series of agreements could de-escalate the conflict and establish a recognized border between Lebanon and Israel.

A French proposal presented to Beirut in February called for Hezbollah fighters to withdraw 10 kilometers from the border and negotiations aimed at resolving land border disputes.