Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s camp is poised to overtake French President Emmanuel Macron’s in the European Parliament, as the far-right leader waits to be given a say in the distribution of the EU’s most important posts.

Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia party and other far-right forces increased their number of MEPs in Strasbourg in the June 9 European elections.

On the contrary, the European group of liberals and centrists Renew Europe, to which the French Renaissance MEPs also belong, lost seats. They lost more today, with the announcement of the departure of MEPs from the Czech Ano party, Eurosceptic billionaire and former prime minister Andrej Babis.

The Eurogroup of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), to which Italy’s Brothers belong, is currently claiming third place in the European Parliament, with 83 MEPs against 81 for Renew (74, not including the Czech MEPs who have not yet fully formalized their withdrawal their).

A difference that changes everything, according to the head of the Italian government. Traditionally, the main offices in the European Union are distributed taking into account the results of the European elections.

But the political forces that came first on June 9, the Christian Democrats of the European People’s Party (EPP), followed by the Social Democrats of the S&D group (Socialists and Democrats) aspire to re-establish the majority they had together with the centrists of Renew in its composition previous European Parliament.

Together, these three political groups have a comfortable majority of around 400 seats in a total of 720 MEPs.

With these calculations, the leaders of the EPP, the Socialists and Democrats and Renew, began their discussions on Monday night, during an informal summit of the 27, on the distribution of the highest offices in the EU.

Much to the dismay of J. Meloni, who called it “surreal” that he was not invited to the negotiating table. “The election clearly shifted Europe’s center of gravity to the right,” without it changing anything at the table of 27, he said in an interview with Italian newspaper Il Giornale.

Thus, the Italian prime minister plans to seize the opportunity of a next round of negotiations, which is scheduled to take place on June 27 and 28 in Brussels, during a new European summit.

The battle for third place is not over, however. We’ll have to wait until Wednesday, June 26th to accurately gauge the balance of power between ECR and Renew, after the official team formation ends, and the last accessions still possible before that date.

The landscape is therefore expected to become clear for the summit of the 27 which is expected to appoint the presidents of the European Commission, the European Council, as well as the head of European diplomacy.

Ursula von der Leyen, who is supported by the EPP, appears to have a good chance of securing a second term as head of the European Commission. A deal was widely described around her name on Monday night. If this choice is confirmed next Thursday or Friday, it will also have to receive the approval of the European Parliament.

The presidency of the European Council, which convenes the leaders of the 27, is expected to be assigned to the socialist former Prime Minister of Portugal Antonio Costa and the position of the head of the European diplomacy to the Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kalas, a member of Renew.

These decisions are taken by a qualified majority of 27 and Georgia Meloni, a priori, does not have the means to oppose. “He doesn’t have much influence, by any means,” sums up a European diplomat familiar with negotiations between EU member states.

In the European Parliament, Meloni’s camp, even with the rest of the far right, including the French National Alarm of Jordan Bardela or Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, does not have a majority.

Even if the ECR confirms its third place, the balance in the Parliament will not change, estimates a parliamentary source of the EPP.

Something that does not disappoint Meloni, however.

“I believe that in this parliament, in many files, we will see that there can be a change in the topics discussed, in the priorities, in the way we think about certain policies”, she said, promising “surprises”.