Shortly before the presidential election on Friday, on the busy streets of Tehran, nothing gives the impression of a real competition between candidates. In the center of the Iranian capital, campaign posters aspire to lure voters with promises of a strong state, improving the economic situation, progress and a pro-citizen policy. The candidates’ promises remain consciously nebulous.

Just a few years ago, many Iranians publicly expressed their support for politicians. For example, when then-President Hassan Rouhani was campaigning for re-election against Ibrahim Raisi, who died on May 19 in a helicopter crash returning from Azerbaijan. For most Iranians, the era of hope for a rapprochement with the West is now an elusive dream.

Conservative or reformist president?

Iran’s snap presidential election, which is being held after Raishi’s sudden death, will feature six carefully selected candidates. Most are fundamentalists, ultraconservatives, loyal to the Tehran regime, as well as supporters of the system. Among them the 62-year-old speaker of the parliament, Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf, and the hard-line 58-year-old Said Jalili. Ghalibaf, a former general of the powerful Revolutionary Guards, is seen as an opportunist, while Jalili represents more radical positions.

Moderate candidate Masoud Peseshkian enjoys broad support from the reformist camp. As a former Minister of Health, he has government experience. In case of a high turnout at the polls then his chances of election are not bad at all, especially if repeat elections are held and the Iranian people are asked to choose between a conservative and a reformist.

The religious leader Ali Khamenei moves the reins

Since the 1979 revolution, Iran’s political system has combined republican and theocratic characteristics. It is certain, however, that free elections in Iran do not exist: the supervisory body of the Revolutionary Guards Council always examines the candidates for their “suitability”. Criticism of Tehran’s regime is not acceptable under any circumstances, as the repression of demonstrations in recent years has shown. Unlike many other countries, in Iran the president is not the head of state. Power rests solely in the hands of religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The political leadership is now well aware that a significant part of Iranian society criticizes or universally rejects the political system. Nevertheless, experts estimate that voter turnout is important for the country’s leadership because it essentially legitimizes the candidates. This is how the presence of even moderate candidates like Masoud Peseshkian is interpreted. A moderate but harmless candidate is likely to increase voter turnout, while the battle for power will essentially be fought among conservatives loyal to the regime. Peseshkian’s supporters, however, believe that opponents are underestimating him.

Political observers do not expect radical changes the day after the elections: “The differences between the candidates are not great. So Ali Khamenei risks almost nothing with his choices. The leadership mainly emphasizes the continuity of the regime,” says Iran expert Azadeh Zamirirad of the Foundation for Science and Politics (SWP) in Berlin: “Unlike in 2021 when there was one candidate in the election, Raishi, this time there are more than one candidate and they all look different,” the Iranian expert underlines.

Editor: Stefanos Georgakopoulos