The war in Ukraine has reached its first crossroads. The expectation from Moscow, which invaded with more than 150,000 men, was that Kiev would quickly fall and a puppet government would take over in a matter of days. But obstacles arose.
The first was the dual movement of Ukrainian resistance and Western engagement. Despite the predictions that condemned him to a melancholy end, Volodymyr Zelensky, the actor turned president, was able to perfectly publicize the situation of his country and its people with videos that went viral due to the unusual combination of martial tone, existential fear and a way of TV series.
In a few hours, Western opinion makers, spurred on by the euphoria on social media, collectively built an epic soap opera that features the “Ukrainian Churchill” as its protagonist. Zelensky found himself in his new role, and audiences, still in the midst of a pandemic transition, embraced the comforts of fiction rather than harsh reality — the arrival of Russian tanks in Kiev in less than three days of combat.
The fact is that the flame of resistance forced the Western bloc, initially paralyzed by divisions among its members, to react.
Italians and Belgians have set aside the ban on bargaining exceptions for their luxury goods exports in the sanctions talks. Germany basically rewrote its entire foreign policy in the space of two days. The UK agreed to break with the Russian oligarchs who fed its economy. The Americans, who deserted Kiev at the first opportunity, now sell themselves as leaders and have played the card of an attack on the Russian Central Bank.
The most frantic even talk about arming the Ukrainian military and civilians.
In the end, when no one believed it, Westerners unleashed what may turn out to be the most sophisticated geoeconomic blockade in modern history. The commander of an invincible army let a comedian with a smartphone write the story of his war.
Vladimir Putin still has a real chance to fulfill his fantasy and incorporate Ukraine into an imperial arrangement to the applause of what remains of his allies. But then he will have to explain to the Russians and the subjugated peoples what he intends to make of this swamp disconnected from the financial system.
Incredibly, this is the best-case scenario. At worst, he will have to deal with the ensuing conflict and the explosion of internal dissent. Under threat, Putin may try to expand the war across borders.
What is certain is that, in the face of the advance of the destruction of Kiev, the Putin bully against American imperialism, which still lives in some hearts, will definitely be replaced by the Putin Warlord of Grozny and Aleppo, who bombards peoples into submission. .
When that happens, no one will remember NATO’s Machiavellian plans, Biden’s evil deeds or Zelensky’s antics. Because death is a burden a man bears alone. And the madness of war has left Putin trapped between two tragedies.
