The first estimates after the conclusion of the second round of parliamentary elections in France show that the alliance of left parties comes first in votes. French voters appear to have mobilized primarily to prevent the formation of the first far-right government since World War II.

However, with no party winning an outright majority, the result could lead to a political stalemate.

During his first term (2017-2022), Emmanuel Macron had an absolute majority in the National Assembly which ensured him the ability to implement his policies. Then, having only a relative majority from 2022, he was forced to negotiate with other political parties.

After his decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call early elections, the results of the second round show that Emmanuel Macron has lost much of his power.

The key question over the past week was whether any of the parties would manage to pass the 289-seat barrier required for an absolute majority, which would elect the next prime minister and also give him the power in the National Assembly to push through bills and recast France’s domestic agenda.

The first estimates of the second round of the elections put the New People’s Front in first place without, however, winning an absolute majority.

It is noted that the left-wing alliance and the coalition of centrist parties that support President Emmanuel Macron withdrew more than 200 candidates from the second round contests to block the march of Le Pen’s party.

A fragmented political field would favor the far-right and today’s result showed that the strategy worked with the most likely scenario, however, foreseeing a “hung” parliament, which increases political uncertainty.

When should a new government be appointed?

The defeat of the presidential camp seemed inevitable from the first round: an absolute majority of seats was almost impossible for Macron’s centrist coalition, due to the failure to retain a sufficient number of candidates in the second round of parliamentary elections.

There is no official timetable imposed on Emmanuel Macron either to ask the current government to resign or to appoint new ones. The head of state cannot, however, completely ignore the new political situation resulting from the elections. A minority government in the National Assembly will next face a motion of no confidence, which could be tabled from the first session of the future National Assembly. Article 12 of the Constitution sets this process for the second Thursday after the election, i.e. July 18.

How can a new government be formed?

If a political camp gathers an absolute majority of MPs (that is, at least 289 of the 577 members of Parliament), the appointment of a prime minister from among its ranks is in principle mandatory. In the event that an opposition party has an absolute majority, the formation of a government will result in a kind of power-sharing agreement.

In such a coexistence situation, the power to appoint the Prime Minister certainly belongs to the President of the Republic. However, institutional logic does not prevail over the opinion of the majority of MPs, since a minority government will be faced with a motion of no confidence. Logic therefore dictates that the head of state choose the candidate from the majority camp. Thus Francois Mitterrand, in 1986 and 1993, as well as Jacques Chirac, in 1997 appointed prime ministers who were politically opposed.

What happens in the absence of an absolute majority

The issue is complicated if no political camp achieves an absolute majority. In 2022, Emmanuel Macron’s presidential camp had a relative majority in the National Assembly with 246 seats. Target, he proceeded to form a government, which lasted for two years due to the fragmentation of the opposition which never joined forces to overthrow him.

What will happen if there is no government?

In the absence of a clear majority, the risk of institutional blocking is real. The institutions do not impose any timetable for the formation of a government, but no piece of legislation can be approved without the formation of a government.

The scenarios to avoid anarchy:

  • The formation of a “government of national unity” supported by a coalition drawn from different political groups
  • The appointment of a technocratic government to run the country, with ministers without party commitments, based on the model Mario Draghi led in Italy from 2021 to 2022.
  • A minority government in the National Assembly, but which would seek alliances and compromises to pass laws on a case-by-case basis.

The latter scenario, however, carries the risk of a government that would lead to government paralysis and the rotation of many governments.

Another election?

The case for a new return to the polls for the foreseeable future is not possible. According to Article 12 of the Constitution, “the National Assembly cannot be dissolved within one year” and therefore, no elections can be held again until the summer of 2025.