As his coalition came second, above the far right, in yesterday’s parliamentary elections, French President Emmanuel Macron avoided the doom that pundits had predicted, but the aftermath is said to be complicated — domestically, on the French political scene, and on international level.

According to polling institutes, the coalition of the Renaissance presidential party and its center-right allies is expected to take between 150 and 180 seats in the National Assembly, behind the French left alliance (171 to 187). But, above all, in front of the extreme right, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement national party, which for a long time was said to be the favorite, but in the end came third, thanks to the “democratic front” that was formed between the two rounds.

In any case, the Macronist camp, which had a relative majority of 250 seats in the French national delegation, suffered a reduction in its strength. And its leader, who enjoyed practically undisputed power after assuming the presidency in 2017, lost his aura.

The head of state suffered the consequences of the frustration, if not the anger, of his own loyalists, after he decided to dissolve the National Assembly on June 9 essentially single-handedly, following his faction’s crushing defeat in the European elections. And now the “vertical” way of exercising power is openly criticized. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal himself, who ran the campaign and can be partly credited for the result, said yesterday that “I did not choose this dissolution”, however “I refused to endure it”.

Mr. Macron, who reminded shortly before his re-election in 2022 that France does not have a “parliamentary system”, will now need to compose with his political opponents, without whom no majority, not even a relative one, will be possible .

Still, some relief was palpable in the presidential camp. “The centrist faction is still really alive”, explained sources close to the head of state, emphasizing at the same time that “prudence” is required in the analysis of the results.

Contrary to what the Élysée had assumed, the French left was not divided, at least as the elections approached, on the contrary, it turned out to be united, under the banner of the New Popular Front.

While the French president, who promised to fight against the “extremes” when he was elected in 2017, sees his second and final five years marred by the historic rise of the far right (from 134 to 152 seats).

Will the Macronists turn to the left, which claims a mandate to form a government but has not stopped attacking them during the European election campaigns and the first round of parliamentary elections?

The presidential camp will “set conditions in every discussion” in view of the formation of a new majority, warned the head of Renaissance, Stéphane Cezournet, insisting on the popular character of the state, on the European edifice, on the support for Ukraine. Declaring that “Jean-Luc Mélenchon and some of his allies will not (be able to) govern France”.

The leader of the Insubordinate France (LFI, a faction of the French left alliance), Mr. Mélenchon, disgusts the centrists. His faction has been repeatedly accused by a section of the French political scene of flirting with “anti-Semitism”.

The Gaullist right, the party les Républicains (LR), appeared to be banging on the door on the possibility of an alliance with the Macronists. “For us there will be neither an alliance nor a compromise,” summed up Laurent Vauquier, the face of the faction.

Yesterday’s elections may also weaken the French head of state on the international stage. The far-right’s performance in the first round put France in the spotlight, with European governments making no secret of their concern but others, such as Giorgia Meloni’s Italy, expressing strong interest in an E.U. which will be chaired by Hungarian right-wing nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán until December.

For its part, Moscow openly congratulated the far right after its performance in the first round.

The day after tomorrow, Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron will participate in the NATO meeting in Washington, having with him, according to government sources, the outgoing foreign and defense ministers, that is, Stéphane Céjournay and Sébastien Lecornu.

“The fear” was and remains that France will be “blocked, absent, counterproductive at a very difficult time internationally,” Claudia Major of the German Institute for International Affairs and Security (SWP) in Berlin estimated on Friday.

“What do we do if one of the leaders, admittedly difficult, is no longer there or becomes counterproductive?” he wondered. “If everything goes wrong, we’ll end up with (Donald) Trump (in the US presidency), the far right (dominant) in East Germany, Orbán in the EU presidency and France in chaos.”