In a festive atmosphere, the leaders of the NATO member states meet on Tuesday in Washington, celebrating the 75 years of the Atlantic Alliance. On top of that, it is an ideal opportunity to get to know the new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is sending messages of rapprochement with continental Europe. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, could not be absent from such a meeting, under normal circumstances.

But the conditions are not particularly smooth at this time. According to German media, the head of the Commission is not going to Washington, as she needs more time for the necessary “massage” to the MEPs, in order to ensure her re-election. The crucial vote in Plenary of the European Parliament is scheduled for July 18 in Strasbourg.

Theoretically n Ursula von der Leyen it has no problem, as it is supported by the three largest political groups of the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists (S&D) and the Liberals (Renew), which together have 401 MEPs out of a total of 720. This is a comfortable majority, of course . Except that the voting will be secret and “party discipline” is not always taken for granted in the European Parliament, where alliances are easily formed, but also quickly revoked. There are also ad hoc agreements based on an exculpatory give and take. Some speak of a “cheap horse market”, others argue that this is the only way majorities are formed, for better or for worse.

According to the German economic review Handelsblatt, in an informal and “circular” test vote a few days ago in Brussels, 350 of the 401 MEPs from the three major political groups declared their willingness to actually vote for Ursula von der Leyen. However, the remaining 51 did not (for now, at least) want to support her. Most of the objections are found in the “camp” of the Socialists and the French Conservatives.

The “difficult relationship” with the ECR team

What options does the President of the Commission have?The first and best option is to convince the objections within the three largest political groups. In theory an alternative would be to accept the support of the ultra-conservative group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), generously offered by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Probably not a good idea, for many reasons. If nothing else, because the EPP’s right-wing realignments with the establishment of new ones and the division of old political groups are so unpredictable, that no one puts their hand to the fire as to how many MEPs the ECR group will actually have on July 18. But mainly because the support from the ECR group would result in the Social Democrats withdrawing their own support. Meloni’s offer is therefore a free gift, even if it is considered likely that EPP and ECR will cooperate ad hoc in the coming years, especially in immigration.

“Key” the European Greens

The safest solution would be for Ursula von der Leyen to also secure the support of the Greens, who may have suffered heavy losses in the European elections, but with their 53 seats they can “make a difference”, compensating for leaks from the three largest political groups. Already a few days ago, the president of the Commission met in Brussels with the (also German) co-president of the European Greens, Teri Reidke, who then spoke of a “very constructive conversation, with the aim of ensuring a stable, reliable majority”.

The issue is, of course, that in order to support the re-election of von der Leyen in Strasbourg, the Greens will not be satisfied with promises of non-cooperation with the ECR group, but will obviously ask for more serious exchanges. And above all, a commitment that there will be no retreat from the climate goals of the Commission, which (it says) aspires to make the European economy climate neutral by 2050. The Green Deal had become the “flag” of the Commission and most European governments in the previous five years, but under the threat of recession many are starting to “take off the sweater”. An eloquent example is Berlin’s attempt to cancel the ban on conventional engines in the automotive industry from 2035 in favor of electrification.