Two days after the second round of parliamentary elections, which did not give any political force an absolute majority, but brought first power in seats to the left, second to the faction of President Macron, third to the extreme right and fourth to the traditional right, France is in phase of the search for a prime minister and, if possible, a governing majority. The “Macron camp” seems to have a “plan B”, although theory is far from practice, especially in French politics.

Who will be Atal’s successor?

For now the country’s president, Emmanuel Macron, who is preparing to leave for the US where he will take part in the NATO summit, has decided to keep his chosen one Gabriel Atal as prime minister, waiting, as he said, for the “construction” of the new French National Assembly. Upon his return, however, he will have to make decisions and appoint a prime minister who, if nothing else, will not be in danger of falling, following a decision of the absolute majority of the members of the National Assembly. Under normal circumstances he would be the head of the first party in parliamentary power, namely the New People’s Front of the left. The problem here is that the parties of the Left, which came together in the parliamentary elections of 2022, then split up and reunited hastily after the announcement of the early parliamentary elections last month, they had no commonly accepted leader and are still finding it difficult to get one today. The Popular Front component with the largest number of MPs, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Insubordinate France, believes that the new prime minister should come from within it. Faced with this possibility, MPs from the Macron faction clarified today that they will vote in favor of any motion of censure against a government in which there will be persons coming from the radical left.

On the other hand, the socialists also believe that the new prime minister it should come from their own political space, (their Secretary Olivier Faure has already declared ready) putting forward the argument that if the senators are added to the MPs, then the socialist is the largest parliamentary component of the left. For now, however, all components of the left agree that the new prime minister of France should come from the New Popular Front. They also believe that he could govern, together of course with President Macron, without having an absolute parliamentary majority, as happened and is happening with Gabriel Atal.

The “plan B” of the “Macron camp”

Completely different however, it seems to be the approach of things from the faction close to President Macron, which, considering that the pre-election cooperation of the parties of the left was completely opportunistic, he does not hide that he seeks to break it up, with the aim of creating a large governing majority that will leave out only Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Alarm and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Insubordinate France. If this partnership is achieved then the Macron faction, putting forward the argument that this will be the most important parliamentary force, argues that the new prime minister should come from within it.

Preparations for a new president of the National Assembly

In the meantime, the newly elected MPs arrived today Tuesday, for the first time after the elections, at the Bourbon Palace, where the French National Assembly is located, and the day after tomorrow they will have their first political test, since they have to elect the president of the Chamber. According to the regulations of the National Assembly, the deputy who gathers the absolute majority of its members is elected its president. However, if this is impossible, the candidate with the first vote is elected. Given that no political force has declared that it intends to cooperate on this issue with the extreme right, the only case is to elect the president of the House with an absolute majority of its members is for the left to cooperate with the Macron faction. If now no faction cooperates with another and all the components of the left agree on a common candidate, they will elect him with a relative majority. However, if the Macron faction cooperates with the traditional right of the Republicans, then they too could elect the new president, since together they have a greater number of MPs than the parties of the left. France, which knew how to operate with an electoral law that was made for two political forces, but which today has more, has now entered a system of government of variable political geography, and slowly he begins to realize it.