If nothing else, Donald Trump he has a motto for the direction of the economic agenda that he will pursue, should he win the presidential election. “America first” is the central slogan of Trump’s signature policy of protectionism, which erects walls on imports. Some believe the “Trump prescription” will cause trade wars and geopolitical chaos, others are excited by the prospect of new jobs being created across borders. At least that’s what Trump promises.

The issue is that outgoing President Joe Biden has failed to “sell” to the American public his ideas and the successes he is credited with in the field of economic policy. According to a recent poll by the Economist and YouGove, 51% of Americans disapprove of his policy, while 58% do not agree with the way he is dealing with the problem of inflation. A percentage of 25% even states that at the moment inflation is the most important problem. 54% of respondents consider that “overall, the state of the economy has worsened”.

“One of the same” from the Republicans?

At the Republican convention in Milwaukee, Donald Trump spoke for 90 minutes, presenting his “vision” for the future of the country. As he characteristically stated, “America’s future will be better, stronger, freer and happier than ever.” In practice, his promises for a new term in the White House probably do not differ from what he wanted to implement in his previous term. Once again Trump is promising import tariffs, border tax breaks and uncompromising rhetoric against all. The only thing that changes is the experience he now has and his greater determination to achieve his goals.

“During his first term, Trump ran into many different obstacles,” Dan Mallinson, assistant professor of political science and public administration at the University of Pennsylvania’s Harrisburg, told Deutsche Welle. “Now he is determined to set aside all these obstacles from the beginning.”

His own message is sent by the Republican vice-presidential candidate, James David Vance, who is of course Trump’s personal choice. He treats large business groups with a critical attitude, demands the fragmentation of technological giants (Big Tech) and promises support for indigenous industrial and craft enterprises.

High tariffs on non-US goods

For Trump, the main tool in his effort to boost domestic production will be the imposition of tariffs. So far it has proposed “horizontal tariffs” of 10% on all imports of goods, while especially on exports from China the tariffs will reach 60%. If this happens, it is obvious that the rest of the countries will respond to the US with corresponding tariffs. Even if some of them end up in the US courts, the result will be a generalized trade war. For his part, Dan Mallinson estimates that “Trump leans toward economic protectionism, but the record is rather mixed in terms of the measures he has implemented.”

The brief campaign manifesto released before Milwaukee did not reveal details of the economic policy the Republican candidate intends to implement. The text is limited to general declarations, such as the abolition of restrictive provisions, the creation of new jobs in manufacturing and the liberalization of the energy market.

In addition, Republicans emphasize that the border with Mexico will be “sealed” to stop immigration, while at the same time “the largest alien repatriation operation in American history” will begin. All of this may not be directly related to the economic agenda, but if implemented, it is sure to cause painful consequences for the American economy, which is already “suffering” from a lack of labor. But the Republicans will try to solve the problem by establishing the “Buy American and Hire American” policy. In other words, consumers will be encouraged to prefer American products and businesses to hire American workers as a priority. Employers who prefer to outsource jobs to low-cost countries will be excluded from central government tenders.

Other Republican ideas

Donald Trump also plans to make permanent the tax breaks he enacted in 2017. Among other things, he promises that tips for restaurant and tourism workers will no longer be subject to income tax.

“While he is constantly talking about inflation, it has not been clear how his economic policy is able to fight inflation,” Dan Mallinson says of Trump’s economic pronouncements. In any case, he points out, “the economy is bigger than the president’s personal choices, so it doesn’t seem likely that things will change overnight.”

Edited by: Yiannis Papadimitriou