Two leaders, Ismail Haniya of Hamas and senior Hezbollah commander Fouad Sukur were killed just hours apart in attacks blamed on Israel. The risk of escalation of tension in the region is more visible than ever and fears of the outbreak of a regional war are constantly growing.

These new strikes come at a time when international mediators are working to bring Israel and Hamas closer together in an agreement to cease fire and end the devastating war in Gaza and ease tensions between Israel and Hezbollah after months of cross-border fighting.

The assassination of top Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran and the strike against top Hezbollah commander Fouad Soukour in Beirut could derail these laborious efforts to neutralize a Middle East powder keg, the Associated Press reports in an analysis.

Iran has also threatened to respond after the attack on its soil, which it could drags the region into total war.

Gaza ceasefire talks may collapse

Haniyeh’s assassination could too to push Hamas to withdraw from the negotiations for a ceasefire brokered by the US, Egypt and Qatar.

Given Haniyeh’s role, a senior Egyptian official with direct knowledge of the negotiations said the assassination was likely to have an impact, calling it a “a reckless act.”

“Haniyeh was the main link with the (Hamas) leaders in Gaza and with other Palestinian factions,” said the official, who had met with the Hamas leader several times in the talks. “He was the one we met face to face and talked about the ceasefire” he added on condition of anonymity.

International leaders condemned the attack, which comes as ceasefire efforts are underway.

“How can mediation succeed when one side murders the other side’s negotiator?» wrote on the social networking platform X, Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani who condemned the attacks.

THE US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken she said she didn’t want to speculate on the outcome, but the events refreshed her “urgent need to achieve a ceasefire”, for which they work on a daily basis.

The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued that military pressure will push Hamas to say yes to a dealbut previous assassinations of high-ranking officials do not seem to increase the chances of a deal.

At the same time, the desperate families of the hostages held in Gaza are pleading with all their hearts for the release of their loved ones.

The danger of a regional war

The attacks also worried some diplomats working to defuse tensions in the region.

“The events in Tehran and Beirut pushing the entire Middle East into a devastating regional war”, said a Western diplomat who described Haniyeh’s assassination “serious development” which has “almost killed a potential ceasefire in Gaza, given its timing and location” and predicts that the assassination of Haniyeh inside Tehran “will force the country to respond.”

Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike, although it vowed to kill all Hamas leaders in the October 7 attacks.

Menachem Merhavy, an Iran expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem argues that Iran is unlikely to respond directly to Israel and considers more likely to send his reply through Hezbollah.

“Iran knows its ability to hurt Israel is far more important than Lebanon”Merhavy said.

“The message was to Iran and the proxies, if you thought you were safe in Tehran, we can get you there too. “Reconsider your relations with Tehran, because they cannot protect you on its own soil.”Merhavy added.

Targeted leaders can easily be replaced

Although Haniyeh’s name has more international recognition, strike on Hezbollah commander Fouad Soukour, ‘much more important from an operational point of view’said Michael Milstein, an Israeli analyst of Palestinian affairs at Tel Aviv University.

It says Sukkur was involved in the day-to-day management of Hezbollah strikes on Israel, including, according to Israel, the rocket attack on Majdal Shams that killed 12 children last Saturday. Israel said its strike in Beirut on Tuesday killed him, but Hezbollah has not confirmed this.

“If Hezbollah is considering how to act or respond, one of the main questions is how they will manage a war without Sukkur.”Milstein said.

Still others say that if Sukkur is indeed killed, he will be easily replaced.

“Hezbollah has thick layers of commanders and leaders and killing 1 or 10 or 500 will not change the equation,” said Fawaz Gerges, of the London School of Economics.

Gerges said Haniyeh was more leader- symbol and abstained from day-to-day operations in Gaza.

“Although the killing of Haniyeh is a painful blow to Hamas, it will make no difference in the military confrontation between Israel and Hamas,” concludes Gerges.