Ukraine’s operation in the Kursk region has allowed Ukrainian forces to seize, at least temporarily, the battlefield initiative in a front-line area, and to challenge Russia’s initiative throughout the theater of war, says an analysis by ISW (Institut for the study of War).

The Ukrainian military operation in the Kursk region and further potential Ukrainian cross-border incursions are forcing the Kremlin and the Russian military command to decide whether they perceive the kilometers-long international border with northeastern Ukraine as a front line for Russia to defend, rather than a inactive area of ​​the theater of war as it was faced from the fall of 2022.

Moscow’s response may require the Russian military command to consider the manpower and materiel requirements for international border defense as part of its theater-wide campaign planning, and thus may impose long-term operational constraints which Russia previously did not face.

The Russian military command effectively treated the international border with northeastern Ukraine as the inactive front of the war theater after the Russian withdrawal from Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts in the spring of 2022 and the Ukrainian liberation of significant territory in Kharkiv Oblast in the fall of 2022. Russian and Ukrainian forces have conducted sabotage and reconnaissance activities, indirect fire, and cross-border strikes along the border since the fall of 2022, but none of these routine activities appeared to raise broader Russian operational concerns in defense of Russian of land in the area.

Satellite images and Russian and Ukrainian reports from August 10 and 11 show that Ukrainian forces advanced west and northwest into the Kursk region, although Russian sources have largely claimed that Russian forces have stabilized the situation.

The hastily assembled and disparate pool of Russian forces responding to the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region consists of Russian units that are likely below their theoretical end strength and are ill-prepared to establish the joint command and control structures necessary to coordinate businesses.

Russia’s deployment of battalion and lower-level units, rather than full brigades and regiments, for the defense in Kursk Oblast likely contributes to the difficulty for Russian forces to respond effectively.

Russian officials have acknowledged that Ukrainian mobile groups advanced more than 25 kilometers into Belovsky, Kursk Oblast on the night of August 10-11, but there is no indication that these groups remain in the area or that Ukrainian forces are operating beyond the immediate border area of ​​Belovsky .

The reported rapid Ukrainian maneuver in Belovsky suggests that Russian forces along the border remain ill-prepared to respond to further Ukrainian cross-border incursions.

A top Ukrainian military official reportedly said that Russian forces had somewhat reduced the intensity of attacks in eastern Ukraine, but otherwise the situation remained largely unchanged amid the Ukrainian operation in Kursk, an observation that was in line with estimates of ISW on the Russian offensive tempo throughout the theater of war.

“Thousands” of military personnel are taking part in the ongoing Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk region, a senior Ukrainian official said, while Moscow said it had now “halted” the advance deeper into the territory of Kiev’s units. At the same time, however, there are reports that Ukrainians entered the towns of Martynovka and Gordeevka.