US Election: Kamala Harris Shifts Field – What New Polls Show

The USA they are now in the final stretch for the presidential elections of November 5 and everything shows that the confidence possessed by Donald Trump has begun to bend due to the presence of Kamala Harris. The Democrats seem to be winning the bet of their choice to “overturn” the candidacy of the strained -due to age- Joe Bidennominating the current vice president, Kamala Harris, in his place. The former prosecutor not only appears to be closing in on Trump, but appears to be turning the tide entirely, as one more poll has her maintaining a steady lead over her Republican opponent nationally.

The Ipsos poll on ABC News and the Washington Post confirms her lead Kamala Harris and it shows that Trump will not make the… walk he believed in the upcoming elections.

A little over 24 hours before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which is also decisive in the run-up to the election, Kamala Harris is at 49% against 45% of Trump among registered voters. When third-party candidates are included in the survey, Harris is at 47% and Trump at 44%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. at 5%. In early July, Trump was at 43%, Biden at 42% and Kennedy at 9%.

Although the momentum of the campaign has shifted since Biden dropped out of the race in July, the findings of the new Post-ABC-Ipsos poll continue to point to a “tight” election in November. Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — are likely to determine who wins the electoral college.

Other polls have shown Harris gaining ground in most if not all of those swing states since Biden dropped out of the race, but also show the race in most of those states to be within the margin of standard electoral error .

How satisfied are the citizens with the choice of Kamala

One clue to how the shift from Biden to Harris affected voter attitudes comes from the question of how satisfied people are with the Harris vs. Trump choice. In July, when the contest was still Biden vs. Trump, 28 percent of voters overall said they were satisfied with the choice. Today, 44% say they are satisfied with the choice of Harris or Trump.

The biggest change was among Democrats. Last month, 20% of Democrats said they were satisfied with the choice of Biden vs. Trump. Now, with Harris as the party’s nominee, 60% of Democrats are satisfied with the current matchup.

62% of Harris voters say they support her “strongly,” compared to 34% who supported Biden last month.

Kamala has noticeably improved her standing against Trump

The new poll comes after a remarkable series of events that began with Biden’s disastrous performance at the June 27 debate in Atlanta. Biden’s impotence that night prompted growing calls from top Democrats for him to step down, fearing that his continued presence at the top of the ticket could put not only the White House at risk, but also lead to the loss of the Senate. . and the failure to regain the majority in Parliament.

Biden bowed to pressure on July 21 and endorsed Harris for the Democratic nomination. This transfer was unprecedented at this point in a presidential campaign, and Harris’s quick consolidation of her party dramatically changed the trajectory of the election. Democrats are hoping to build on the current momentum with their convention in Chicago ahead of a new debate on Sept. 10, hosted by ABC News, between the two candidates.

In a showdown with Trump, Harris improved her standing over Biden among several key groups in the Democratic coalition, including voters under 40 and Democratic-leaning independents.

The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll shows her lead over Trump among voters under 40 at 25 percentage points, compared to Biden’s seven-point advantage in July.

She has also improved on Biden among independents, who support her by an eight-point margin compared to a two-point margin for Trump last month. That shift was concentrated among Democratic independents, who shifted from 77% supporting Biden after the first debate to 92% for Harris in the new poll.

Where do the two presidential candidates excel?

Black voter support for Democrats increased

Black voter support for Harris is slightly higher than it was for Biden last month: 79% supported him then and 83% support her now.

Among white voters with college degrees, Harris leads Trump by 10 points and is about the same as Biden with that group. Among white voters without college degrees, her deficit over Trump is 27 points, also similar to Biden’s 31-point deficit in July.

Biden’s job approval ratings have barely changed since he left the race, with 55 percent saying they disapprove of the job he’s doing and 37 percent saying they approve — a net negative of 18 points. Those approval ratings, along with national polls and opinion polls showing Trump following him, were key factors in Democrats’ push to get the president to resign.

In the latest poll, 39 percent say they approve of the job he is doing as vice president, while 49 percent disapprove and 12 percent say they have no opinion.

Trump is doing better than Biden or Harris in a retrospective look at his presidency. Today, 44% say they approve of the job he did as president between 2017 and 2021, while 49% say they disapprove. Almost without exception, these ratings are better than when he was in office.

Another area where Harris fares better than Biden is personal attributes, where she leads Trump on all five qualities measured.

Throughout the election year and especially after the CNN debate, Trump, 78, had huge advantages over Biden, 81, in terms of mental acuity and physical health. Today Harris leads Trump on both. Trump topped Biden with 30 points on mental clarity and 31 points on physical health in July. Harris, 59, beats Trump on mental clarity by nine points and physical health by 30 points.

She is also seen as more honest and trustworthy than Trump, by a margin of 15 points. He has smaller advantages over Trump on questions about which candidate “represents your personal values” (six points) and who “understands the problems of people like you” (seven points).

The percentage of American adults who have a negative view of both — the so-called “double haters” — is now 13 percent, up from 19 percent last month when Biden was on the campaign trail. Among this group, Trump is heavily favored over Harris.

Americans are closely divided about how they would feel if Harris were elected in November, with 50 percent saying they would be either “enthusiastic” or “satisfied but not thrilled” and 48 percent “dissatisfied but not angry” or “angry”.

Views of Trump are slightly more negative, with 45% expressing a positive reaction to a victory and 53% a negative reaction, including 34% saying he would be angry. That latter number is 13 points higher than those who say they would feel angry if Harris wins.

More than 4 in 10 Americans (46 percent) say Harris’ views on most issues are “too liberal,” while 6 percent say he is “too conservative” and 43 percent say they are “about right ». For Trump, 42 percent say his views on issues are too conservative, 9 percent say too liberal and 44 percent say they are “about right.”

The economy and inflation remain the top issues in the election, with about half of Americans saying each is “one of the most important” in choosing a candidate.

Four in 10 say protecting American democracy is one of the most important issues, although Democrats are much more likely to cite this issue than Republicans or independents. Next on the list is the US-Mexico border situation, although this issue is much more important to Republicans than to Democrats or independents.

Below those issues in importance are a number of others that have been part of the campaign-year dialogue: health care, crime and safety, abortion, gun violence and Supreme Court appointments. Democrats are much more likely to list the latter three as important along with health care, while Republicans are more likely to list crime and safety.

Meanwhile, just 14 percent of Americans say the war between Israel and Hamas is one of the most important issues on their ballot this fall. The issue has caused divisions within the Democratic coalition this year and dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the war. Harris has taken a firmer line than the president in calling for a ceasefire, though she is generally aligned with him on overall policy. Democrats are bracing for protests by pro-Palestinian protesters at the Chicago convention next week.

An equally low percentage cite race relations as one of the most important issues in their vote (13 percent).

On a list of 11 issues, Harris is seen as more trustworthy than Trump on six of them. The former president is more confident about the economy, inflation, immigration and the Israel-Gaza war. Harris’ strengths are on race relations, abortion, health care, protecting democracy, Supreme Court appointments and gun violence.

Her only double-digit gains are on the first two: race relations and abortion. Trump has a 10-point lead on immigration — though Harris’ deficit is four points smaller than Biden’s last month — and Trump now has a nine-point lead on the economy and inflation.

Americans continue to view the economy in negative terms, with 72 percent saying the current economy is either “not so good” or “poor.”

Nearly 6 in 10 Americans say they believe Harris has had “little” or “very little” influence on the administration’s immigration policies, and more than 6 in 10 say she has had limited influence on the administration’s economic policies. Democrats are more likely to say he had more influence than Republicans or independents.

Meanwhile, a majority of Americans (56 percent) say Trump had at least a good influence on the 2022 Supreme Court decision ending the constitutional right to abortion, which about 3 in 5 Americans oppose. More than 8 in 10 Democrats and more than half of Americans who strongly oppose the decision say Trump influenced the outcome.