The war in Ukraine is raging, with fears of a nuclear exchange growing. This is a world-historical event, which according to many analysts is capable of radically transforming Europe.
Thomas Friedman New York Times envisages three possible scenarios for how this war could end.
“Complete destruction”, “dirty compromise” and “salvation”
The three scenarios mentioned are: “complete destruction”, “dirty compromise” and “salvation”.
If Putin does not give in to Western pressure, he seems willing to kill those he deems necessary and destroy as much of Ukraine’s infrastructure as he needs to eradicate civilization and destroy its leadership.
This scenario could lead to mass war crimes, the like of which have not been recorded since World War II, capable of condemning Putin, his allies, and Russia itself to eternal exile from civilized nations.
Closer to hell
The digital world has so far not had to deal with a leader accused of such heinous war crimes, whose vast country is one of the largest exporters of oil and gas and has the largest nuclear arsenal in human history.
Every day that Putin refuses to stop the invasion brings us closer to the gates of hell. Any Western intervention could lead to a nuclear confrontation. But if we allow Putin to subdue Kyiv with thousands of dead, as he did in Aleppo and Grozny, we will have given him permission to create a European Afghanistan, an exporter of refugees and instability.
The second scenario concerns the successful halting of the Russian invasion by the Ukrainian army and civilians and the simultaneous imposition of effective economic sanctions against Russia, forcing both sides to a painful compromise.
The rough lines of this agreement will include a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory. The de facto Russian enclaves of eastern Ukraine should be formally ceded to Russia, while Kyiv should accept the demilitarization of the country. This scenario is not plausible, as it would require Putin to abandon the vision of a Greater Russia, having already wasted the lives of Russian soldiers. Ukraine, for its part, will never accept another annexation of its territories to Russia.
The third – and less likely – scenario is for Russian citizens to show the same courage as the Ukrainians, ousting Putin from power. Many Russians must have begun to worry that they would have no future as long as Putin leads their country. Thousands have protested against Putin’s irrational war, endangering their physical integrity and freedom.
These reactions make us wonder if the “wall of fear” has begun to break down and if a mass movement could be formed to threaten Putin’s political survival. Even if the Russians remain silent, their daily lives have been radically disrupted. From now on, every Russian citizen will have to pay a “Putin tax”, due to the financial sanctions against the country, in order to keep the former KGB agent in power.
Secret meetings
For all of the above reasons, I hope that there are senior Russian intelligence officials and members of the armed forces in Putin’s inner circle who are meeting in a secret Kremlin room, saying what we all think: either Putin has lost his strategic skills because of her. long isolation during the pandemic or remains in a state of psychological denial about the mismanagement of the Ukrainian crisis. If Putin fulfills his threat and levels Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, he and his henchmen will never see their London and New York apartments acquired through their loot. They will be held in a large prison: Russia.
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