Vladimir Putin may be under pressure from Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk region earlier this month, but this weekend he is expected to celebrate territorial gains further west in Germany.

According to a Politico analysis, Russia-friendly parties in three East German states, Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, they are set to make significant gains in regional elections in September, two of which are set for Sunday.

With pro-Russian Alternative for Germany (AfD) to have a good chance of finishing first in all three states and the newly formed left “Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance” (BSW) gaining ground, Moscow is set to re-establish a strong foothold in a wide swath of former East Germany, an area it dominated for decades during the Cold War.

If the predictions are confirmed at the ballot box, the results are sure to cause deep concern across Germany. An extremist landslide would reveal the extent to which Germany’s political establishment’s efforts to bridge the country’s East-West divide have failed and shake Berlin’s already fragile tripartite coalition.

At the same time, the development would mean a personal victory for Putin: The action of the Russian leader in Dresden as a KGB spy in the 1980s, it was an experience for him and he maintains an interest in all German developments. One biographer called him “the German in the Kremlin”.

Overall, pro-Moscow parties, which span the far right and left of the political spectrum, are expected to garner at least 50% of the vote in all regions, according to the latest polls. In the state of Thuringia, the parties are predicted to win up to 65%, with the AfD finishing first with around 30%.

While not all parties are as overtly pro-Russian as the AfD, they share two common narratives promoted by the far right: that NATO is to blame for the war in Ukraine and that a peaceful solution would only be possible if the West did serious diplomatic efforts.

Germany’s main ruling parties at the national level — the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP) — have lost ground, with polls predicting a combined 12% in Saxony and Thuringia and 27% in Brandenburg. Even adding to this the percentage of Germany’s biggest centrist force, the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), the mainstream parties do not exceed 50%.

This is a huge setback for the centrist parties that have shaped East German political life since reunification. In the early 1990s, the dominant powers of West Germany dominated East Germany. Even today, more than 40% of the upper political class in Germany’s eastern states come from the West.

The rapid rise of the AfD and other populist parties in East Germany suggests that this approach has failed. Both the Greens and the FDP, the smallest of the three parties in Germany’s national coalition, face the possibility of being kicked out of all three state parliaments, according to the latest poll. To win seats, parties must garner at least 5% of the vote.

“The democratic parties — the SPD, the CDU, even the Greens — have never been able to establish themselves in East Germany in the same way they did in the West, and that makes it much easier of course for a party like the AfD to gain an advantage in a more volatile electorate,” said Johannes Kieß, a sociologist at the University of Leipzig.

Although reunification fundamentally transformed the economy of the former East Germany, raising living standards, resentment of the country’s de facto occupation by the West remains. Since reunification, the region has lost 15% of its population as many former East Germans, especially women, have moved west.

Decades of anti-Western propaganda

Even if most Germans in East Germany have no illusions about Putin, they still haven’t gotten over decades of anti-Western propaganda. For many, Moscow is no worse than Washington, which populist politicians accuse of working behind the scenes to pursue its own goals in Ukraine.

“The US is a declining superpower struggling to maintain its global hegemony,” Sarah Wagenknecht, who heads the eponymous BSW, said last month.

For the most part, left-wing politicians in the east of the country join the ranks of the BSW and the Left party, the successor to the former East German communist party, and are less pro-Putin than pro-peace.

We need a European peace order that includes Russia,” Bodo Ramelow, the current prime minister of Thuringia and one of the most critical voices of Russia in the Left party, said this month. “All participating countries should agree to a non-aggression pact and create a defense community.”

Critics dismiss such appeals from the left as naïve. Pressuring the West to end arms shipments while simultaneously calling on Ukraine to suspend its struggle and cede territory is pro-Moscow and legitimizes its invasion of Ukraine, they say.

The biggest threat, however, remains the AfD, which would cause a political earthquake far beyond Germany’s borders if the party wins in all three states, a prospect some say is more likely after last week’s knife attack in Solingen allegedly committed by a Syrian man with suspected links to the Islamic State.

The AfD’s links to Moscow are strong. Ahead of June’s European elections, German authorities uncovered a Russian influence operation involving one of the main AfD candidates. Even so, the party finished second with 16% and performed particularly well in the east of the country.

Many senior members of the AfD make no secret of their ties to Putin’s authoritarian regime.

Björn Höcke, the AfD leader in Thuringia, who many see as the party’s spiritual godfather, has said that if he ever becomes chancellor of Germany, his first trip will be to Moscow.
Before relations between Moscow and Berlin soured, Putin frequently visited Germany – including the former East.

“I’ll be honest, I come to Dresden with a special feeling,” he told the audience during a visit to the city in 2009 to receive the Order of St. George, an award for outstanding figures who “fight for good in the world.” .

“This is without a doubt one of the centers of European culture, a city rich in history with its own special charm,” Putin said.